{"id":58136,"date":"2025-07-25T13:59:45","date_gmt":"2025-07-25T08:29:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.equentis.com\/blog\/?p=58136"},"modified":"2025-07-25T13:59:50","modified_gmt":"2025-07-25T08:29:50","slug":"one-game-changing-idea-that-can-instantly-make-you-a-better-investor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.equentis.com\/blog\/one-game-changing-idea-that-can-instantly-make-you-a-better-investor\/","title":{"rendered":"One Game-Changing Idea That Can Instantly Make You a Better Investor"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"bsf_rt_marker\"><\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In one of my favourite <a href=\"https:\/\/www.equentis.com\/blog\/5-books-to-read-to-become-a-better-investor\/\">books on investing<\/a>, <em>The Intelligent Investor<\/em>, father of value investing Ben Graham makes a very important point right at the start.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He argues that an investor&#8217;s chief problem, and even his worst enemy, is likely to be himself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So very true, isn&#8217;t it?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Remember, this was way before the whole <a href=\"https:\/\/www.equentis.com\/blog\/how-behavioral-finance-can-help-you-make-smarter-financial-decisions\/\">behaviour finance<\/a> revolution kicked off. It&#8217;s why you need to give Graham the credit for being so spot on with his observation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Decades later, behaviour psychologists like Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky would undertake a full-fledged study of the biases that affect our thinking and often come in the way of sensible decision making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And guess what? As far as investing is concerned, they came to the same conclusion as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.equentis.com\/blog\/the-three-beautiful-words-of-investing\/\">Graham<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One of their more famous works is known as &#8216;On the Psychology of Prediction&#8217;. They explain how humans are such bad predictors and what we can do to improve the accuracy of our predictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to them, there are 3 things to consider to make an effective prediction:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The base rate<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The individual case<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>How to weigh the two<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Let me help you with an example which, although silly, does its job quite well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Imagine you are walking down a street and suddenly you encounter a dog. Should you be careful and quickly get out of its reach or should you keep walking, hoping that the dog won&#8217;t bark loudly at you?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Well, if you consider statistics then it is found that 60%-70% of all dogs bark aggressively at strangers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Therefore, the dog in front of you is the individual case and your base rate is 60%-70%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, how are you going to weigh the two factors?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Well, if it was me, I would steer clear of the dog. I would ensure I&#8217;m well outside the range of its leash. The odds that the dog won&#8217;t bark at me are not in my favour.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That&#8217;s the power of using a base rate right there. Even if it was a small dog, you&#8217;d be well advised to steer clear of it based on historical base rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Base rate is very useful in the field of investing as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The next time you are tempted to invest in a highly speculative <a href=\"https:\/\/www.equentis.com\/blog\/10-small-cap-stocks-for-2025\/\">small-cap company<\/a> that has no profits currently but is likely to be profitable in the future, you need to ask yourself what is the base rate here? How many times have people ended up making huge money on such investments?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Well, if it is a low number and there&#8217;s very little that separates this company from a typical speculative stock of the same size, you&#8217;d do well to stay away from the stock.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thus, an understanding of the base rate is such an important quality to have while investing in stocks. It not only helps us invest in stocks and asset classes with a greater reward potential than risk but also helps us steer clear of highly speculative counters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Little wonder, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.equentis.com\/blog\/how-behavioral-finance-can-help-you-make-smarter-financial-decisions\/\">Daniel Kahneman<\/a> called base rates as one of his favourite concepts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Conclusion<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p>The market punishes prediction arrogance but rewards probability humility. Base\u2011rate thinking is simply a structured way of staying humble. Adopt it, and you\u2019ll:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Avoid most capital\u2011destroying fads.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Enter <a href=\"https:\/\/www.equentis.com\/researchandranking\/5in5-wealth-creation\">high\u2011quality ideas<\/a> at valuations that still leave upside on the table.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Sleep better because your portfolio is built on odds, not anecdotes.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Try this for one <a href=\"https:\/\/www.equentis.com\/blog\/q1-result-analysis-hdfc-bank-vs-icici-bank-which-is-better\/\">earnings season<\/a>: each time you feel that itch to buy or sell, pause and ask, \u201cWhat does the base rate say?\u201d Chances are, you\u2019ll make fewer moves\u2014but far better ones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ben Graham spotted this trap 80\u202fyears ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Kahneman quantified it 40\u202fyears ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But you can exploit it starting today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you\u2019re looking for a ready\u2011made framework that bakes base rates, check out <a href=\"https:\/\/multiplyrr.equentis.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">MultiplyRR\u2019s research stack<\/a> and see how a data\u2011first approach can stack the odds in your favour.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Invest smart, stay curious, and let the numbers keep you honest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-ast-global-color-5-color has-vivid-red-background-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color wp-elements-499db7743cd6e0732dbcf68b165a209c\">Disclaimer Note: The securities quoted, if any, are for illustration only and are not recommendatory. This article is for education purposes only and shall not be considered as a recommendation or investment advice by Equentis &#8211; Research &amp; Ranking. We will not be liable for any losses that may occur. Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. Registration granted by SEBI, membership of BASL &amp; the certification from NISM in no way guarantee the performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In one of my favourite books on investing, The Intelligent Investor, father of value investing Ben Graham makes a very [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":58137,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-58136","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.equentis.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58136","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.equentis.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.equentis.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.equentis.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/22"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.equentis.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=58136"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.equentis.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58136\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":58139,"href":"https:\/\/www.equentis.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58136\/revisions\/58139"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.equentis.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/58137"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.equentis.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=58136"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.equentis.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=58136"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.equentis.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=58136"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}