{"id":69824,"date":"2026-08-17T15:58:28","date_gmt":"2026-08-17T10:28:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.equentis.com\/blog\/?p=69824"},"modified":"2026-08-17T15:58:31","modified_gmt":"2026-08-17T10:28:31","slug":"crude-near-90-can-hormuz-tensions-push-prices-higher","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.equentis.com\/blog\/crude-near-90-can-hormuz-tensions-push-prices-higher\/","title":{"rendered":"Crude Near $90: Can Hormuz Tensions Push Prices Higher?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"bsf_rt_marker\"><\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Brent crude is back near the $90-a-barrel mark as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved and tanker traffic through the key energy route has slowed sharply. On August 17, Brent was trading around $88.79 a barrel, while India&#8217;s average crude import price had already risen to $91.16 on August 14. The key question for oil markets now is whether the disruption becomes severe enough to create an actual supply shortage, rather than simply keeping a geopolitical risk premium in prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why Is Crude Oil Near $90?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oil prices have moved higher as hopes of a quick resolution to the US-Iran standoff have weakened. The Strait of Hormuz has become the centre of attention because it is a critical route for oil and gas shipments from the Persian Gulf.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Brent crude rose above $89 in early trading on Monday, with concerns about reduced tanker traffic adding to supply fears. Reuters reported that only five commodity vessels crossed Hormuz on Saturday and none on Sunday, compared with 31 vessels during the previous weekend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That change in shipping activity matters because oil markets respond not only to how much crude is being produced, but also to whether it can physically reach buyers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What Makes the Strait of Hormuz So Important?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow maritime passage connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman. It is a major route for crude oil and liquefied natural gas exports from Gulf producers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For India, its importance is particularly high. ICRA estimates that India imports around 90% of its crude oil consumption and that roughly 45% to 50% of India&#8217;s crude imports were historically routed through Hormuz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This explains why even a temporary disruption can affect India&#8217;s energy outlook. If shipping becomes more expensive or alternative routes have to be used, the additional cost can eventually filter through to refiners, businesses and consumers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Can Hormuz Tensions Push Oil Above $90?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yes, but a sustained move well above $90 would likely require a deeper and longer disruption to physical oil supplies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At present, the market is dealing with an unusual situation. Hormuz traffic has slowed considerably, but oil prices have not surged without interruption. Reuters reported that analysts believe much more significant disruption, such as a sustained halt to crude flows through Hormuz or additional disruption at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, could be needed to push prices substantially higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This distinction is important. Political tension can lift prices temporarily, but prolonged supply losses are generally needed to keep prices elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If shipping gradually resumes, some of the geopolitical premium could disappear. If vessels continue to avoid the route and physical inventories begin tightening, the pressure on crude could become more persistent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What Is the Impact on India?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Higher crude prices are particularly important for India because of the country&#8217;s dependence on imported energy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Every sustained increase in crude prices can raise India&#8217;s import bill and put pressure on the current account and the rupee. Higher oil costs can also complicate the inflation outlook, particularly if elevated prices persist for several months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The impact is already visible in India&#8217;s crude import costs. The country&#8217;s average crude import price reached $91.16 a barrel on August 14, compared with an average of $82.04 in July and $83.22 in June, according to data cited from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, India is not relying entirely on Hormuz anymore.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Has India Reduced Its Dependence on Hormuz?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yes. India has significantly diversified its crude sourcing and shipping routes since the disruption began.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The government said in March that around 70% of India&#8217;s crude imports were coming through routes outside Hormuz, compared with roughly 55% before the conflict. India also sources crude from a wider group of countries than it did in the past.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Indian refiners have also increased purchases from Russia and Latin America. Reuters reported that Russian crude accounted for around 41% of India&#8217;s crude import mix in June, while Middle Eastern supplies had fallen to about 31%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This diversification provides a cushion, but it does not make India immune to higher global crude prices. Oil is a globally traded commodity, so even barrels arriving through alternative routes are affected by international pricing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Which Indian Sectors Could Be Hit?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The effect of higher crude prices varies significantly across industries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Aviation:<\/strong> Airlines are vulnerable because jet fuel represents a significant operating expense. Sustained fuel inflation can pressure profitability unless higher costs can be passed to passengers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Paints and chemicals:<\/strong> Many products use petroleum-linked raw materials, making input costs sensitive to crude prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Logistics and transportation:<\/strong> Higher diesel and fuel costs can increase freight expenses and affect margins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Oil marketing companies:<\/strong> Their profitability depends on crude acquisition costs, product prices, refining margins, inventory effects and domestic pricing decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Upstream oil producers:<\/strong> Higher crude prices can potentially support revenues for companies producing oil, although their overall performance depends on production volumes and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For the broader equity market, rising crude can therefore create a mixed picture rather than affecting every company in the same way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Could Oil Prices Also Fall From Here?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A fall is possible if diplomatic progress reduces supply concerns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The oil market is currently balancing geopolitical risks against demand conditions, inventories and available supply from outside the affected region. If US-Iran discussions progress and tanker traffic through Hormuz starts returning to normal, the risk premium could decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There is also evidence that weaker global demand can limit the upside in crude. Market analysts have pointed to softer demand and available inventories as factors preventing oil from responding more sharply to the shipping disruption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This means $90 should not automatically be viewed as a floor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Opportunities and Risks for Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For investors, the most important issue is duration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A short-lived spike in crude can affect sentiment without fundamentally changing corporate earnings. A prolonged period of expensive oil is different because it can raise costs, affect inflation and potentially reduce consumer spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Investors should watch:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Brent crude and India&#8217;s crude basket<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Tanker traffic through Hormuz<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>US-Iran diplomatic developments<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The rupee-dollar exchange rate<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>India&#8217;s crude import mix<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Fuel and freight costs<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Corporate margin guidance<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Companies with high energy exposure may face greater pressure, while selected upstream energy businesses can respond differently.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What Should Investors Watch Next?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The next major signal will be whether shipping through Hormuz remains severely restricted or begins to normalise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If traffic remains close to current levels for an extended period, supply concerns could intensify and push crude beyond the $90 mark. If diplomatic developments improve and shipping resumes, prices could stabilise or give back part of their recent gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For India, the combination of crude prices and the rupee will be especially important. Even if global oil prices remain below earlier crisis levels, a weaker rupee can make imported crude more expensive for Indian buyers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Conclusion<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Crude oil is approaching $90 because the market is pricing in continued uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz, stalled US-Iran diplomacy and sharply reduced tanker traffic. A sustained move above $90 is possible if physical supply disruptions deepen, but it is not guaranteed. The strength and duration of the disruption will matter more than the political headlines alone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">India has reduced its dependence on Hormuz by diversifying crude suppliers and shipping routes, offering some protection against a prolonged disruption. Even so, higher global oil prices can affect India&#8217;s import bill, the rupee, inflation and corporate margins. For investors, tracking actual oil flows, diplomatic developments and the duration of the disruption will be more useful than focusing on a single crude price level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Frequently Asked Questions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. Why is crude oil approaching $90 a barrel?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Brent crude is approaching $90 because tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have increased concerns about global oil supply. Tanker traffic through the waterway has slowed sharply, while US-Iran diplomatic efforts have not produced a clear resolution. Brent was around $88.79 a barrel on August 17.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. Can Hormuz tensions push crude oil above $90?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yes, but a sustained move above $90 would likely require a significant and prolonged disruption to physical oil flows. Analysts have indicated that a deeper halt to crude shipments through Hormuz or additional disruption to other key routes could create stronger upward pressure on prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. Why is the Strait of Hormuz important for oil?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf with international shipping routes and carries significant volumes of crude and energy products. Its strategic importance means disruptions can increase transportation costs and create concerns about whether oil can reach global buyers on time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4. How dependent is India on Strait of Hormuz oil shipments?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">India imports around 90% of its crude oil consumption. ICRA has estimated that approximately 45% to 50% of India&#8217;s crude imports were historically routed through the Strait of Hormuz. India has since increased sourcing through alternative routes and suppliers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">5. What is India&#8217;s crude oil price currently?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">India&#8217;s average crude import price reached $91.16 per barrel on August 14, according to data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell cited by Moneycontrol. This was higher than the July average of around $82.04 and June average of approximately $83.22.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">6. How does higher crude affect the Indian economy?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Higher crude prices can increase India&#8217;s import bill and put pressure on the rupee. If elevated prices persist, they can also contribute to inflation and increase operating costs for fuel-intensive businesses. The eventual impact depends on crude prices, currency movements, domestic fuel pricing and the duration of the increase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">7. Which Indian sectors are most affected by expensive crude?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Aviation, logistics, transportation, paints and chemicals can be particularly sensitive because fuel or petroleum-based inputs form part of their costs. Oil marketing and refining companies can experience a more complex impact depending on crude costs, product prices and refining margins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">8. Has India reduced its dependence on Hormuz?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yes. The Indian government said around 70% of crude imports were being routed through non-Hormuz routes in March 2026, compared with about 55% before the conflict. Indian refiners have also increased purchases from countries such as Russia and suppliers outside the Middle East.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">9. Could crude oil prices fall below $90 again?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yes. If shipping through Hormuz normalises, diplomatic tensions ease or global demand remains weak, some of the geopolitical premium in crude could decline. Oil prices are also influenced by inventories, production outside the Middle East and global economic growth, so the $90 level is not a guaranteed floor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">10. What should investors watch if crude stays near $90?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Investors should monitor tanker traffic through Hormuz, US-Iran negotiations, Brent crude, India&#8217;s crude basket, the rupee and corporate margin commentary. The duration of high oil prices is particularly important because a temporary spike can have a different economic effect from sustained energy-cost inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-ast-global-color-5-color has-vivid-red-background-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color wp-elements-e86fd587e2d124f6150f0adba7a93ed0 wp-block-paragraph\">Disclaimer Note: The securities quoted, if any, are for illustration only and are not recommendatory. This article is for education purposes only and shall not be considered as a recommendation or investment advice by Equentis. We will not be liable for any losses that may occur. Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. Registration granted by SEBI, membership of BASL &amp; certification from NISM in no way guarantee the performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Brent crude is back near the $90-a-barrel mark as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved and tanker traffic [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":69833,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"0","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[948],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69824","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stock-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.equentis.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69824","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.equentis.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.equentis.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.equentis.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/25"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.equentis.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=69824"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.equentis.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69824\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":69835,"href":"https:\/\/www.equentis.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69824\/revisions\/69835"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.equentis.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/69833"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.equentis.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=69824"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.equentis.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=69824"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.equentis.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=69824"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}