After nearly three and a half years of intense negotiations, India and the United Kingdom have officially signed a landmark Free Trade Agreement (FTA) on July 24, 2025, during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s state visit to London. 

For the UK, this is being hailed as its biggest post-Brexit trade success. For India, it’s a strategic step to unlock Europe’s markets and deepen economic engagement with a G7 nation.

Let’s break down what the agreement covers, which sectors will benefit the most, what remains unresolved, and how both countries stand to gain.

What’s in the FTA?

The India-UK deal includes tariff eliminations, regulatory cooperation, professional mobility, services trade, digital commerce, and intellectual property. It’s wide-ranging and comprehensive, with some parts coming into effect immediately and others gradually over the next 5 to 15 years.

Key Highlights:

• India gets zero-duty access for 99% of its exports to the UK, covering nearly 100% of the value of goods traded.
  
• The UK gets tariff reduction on 90% of its exports to India, including whisky, automobiles, salmon, chocolates, cosmetics, and more.
  
• Bilateral trade, currently valued at around USD 60 billion, is expected to double to USD 120 billion by 2030.

Source: Business Today

Sectors That Will See Big Gains

This FTA isn’t just a political handshake. It has sector-wise implications, especially for manufacturing, services, and labour-intensive exports from India. Here’s where the big shifts will happen:

Textiles & Apparel

• Indian garments, previously subject to 8–12% UK import duties, will now enjoy zero tariffs.
  
• Exports from hubs like Tiruppur, Ludhiana, Surat, and Moradabad are expected to rise sharply.
  
• Estimated boost: ₹35,000 crore to ₹40,000+ crore in textile exports in FY25.
  
• Tiruppur alone may see employment expansion for its 1 million+ workers, 65% of whom are women.

Pharmaceuticals & Medical Devices

• 99% of India’s pharma and med-tech exports now qualify for zero-duty entry into the UK.
  
• Regulatory procedures for market entry have been simplified, giving India’s low-cost, high-quality producers a larger playground.

Chemicals & Plastics

• Tariff elimination for iodine, agrochemicals, and specialty chemicals.
  
• Export potential could double to $1 billion by FY30, especially for MSMEs.

Auto Components

• Indian-made auto parts and machinery gain zero-duty access into the UK.
  
• Expected to strengthen the Make in India narrative and bolster the auto MSME sector.

Services & Professional Mobility

• The agreement boosts access for Indian IT, financial services, education, and consumer services firms in the UK.
  
• Provisions include:
  
  • 1,800 visas per year for Indian professionals (e.g., yoga instructors, artists, chefs).
    
  • 3-year exemption from UK’s national insurance contributions for short-term Indian workers.
    
  • Easier rules for intra-company transfers and recognition of Indian professional qualifications.

Source: Economic Times

What’s Off the Table?

Despite its scope, the FTA falls short of full coverage. Notably:

• Agriculture: Completely excluded at India’s request due to domestic sensitivities.
  
• Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM): The UK didn’t clarify how its upcoming carbon tax will apply. Starting 2027, this could cost Indian exporters $775 million/year.
  
• Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT): Still under negotiation. The UK wants a sunset clause; India wants protection from retroactive tax claims.

These sticking points mean that while the deal is a major win, some high-stakes issues still remain on the table.

Source: The Guardian

Future Impact on Bilateral Relations

The FTA is positioned as the cornerstone of a broader India–UK Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, aimed at enhancing cooperation not just in trade but also in technology, security, education, and climate change.

Expected Outcomes by 2030:

• Trade volume to increase from $60 billion to $120 billion.
  
• UK GDP projected to rise by £4.8 billion/year.
  
• Wage growth of £2.2 billion/year in the UK.
  
• India expects the creation of 5 million+ jobs, mostly in export-led sectors.
  

Beyond the economic numbers, the agreement solidifies India’s role as a preferred partner in the UK’s global trade strategy post-Brexit and helps India strengthen its economic footprint in Europe.
Source: Business Today

Market Reaction: Calm but Focused

On the day following the announcement:

• Indian stock markets opened flat; Nifty hovered near 25,000.
  
• No dramatic index-wide spike, but:
  
  • Textile, leather, footwear, and auto component stocks saw selective buying interest.
    
• Analysts say broader movement may follow after clarity on unresolved issues like BIT and CBAM.

The subdued market response reflects a “wait and watch” approach, with investors likely evaluating the fine print before recalibrating long-term positions.

What’s in It for India?

• Tariff-free access for nearly all exports to the UK.
• Boost to labour-intensive sectors like textiles, apparel, and gems & jewellery.
• Greater opportunities for IT services, pharma, and med-tech.
• Visa relaxations and social security benefits for skilled workers.
• Potential for 5M+ job creation.

What’s in It for the UK?

• Reduction in tariffs on premium goods like Scotch whisky, gin, cars, chocolates.
• Estimated economic uplift of £4.8 billion/year in GDP.
• Better access to Indian procurement markets and services sector.
• Enhanced strategic footprint in Indo-Pacific trade corridors.
• Long-term gains in sectors like automobiles and education.

Source: Business Today

A Few Hurdles to Watch

• UK auto sector voiced concerns over phased quotas: car imports face long wait-times for full benefit, with high duties till the early 2030s.
  
• MSME exporters in India may struggle with documentation and compliance with new standards (e.g., BCI, OEKO-TEX).
  
• Environmental clauses, such as CBAM, may erode some trade gains unless they are resolved quickly.

Final Takeaway

The India–UK FTA marks a turning point. It opens up opportunities across traditional and emerging sectors, fosters deeper institutional ties, and sets the stage for long-term trade cooperation. While certain gaps remain—especially around investment protection and sustainability regulations—the broad consensus is that both countries now have a stronger platform to build from.

For exporters, investors, and professionals, the next few years will determine how well the FTA translates from agreement to impact. The paperwork is done. Implementation begins now.

Disclaimer Note: The securities quoted, if any, are for illustration only and are not recommendatory. This article is for education purposes only and shall not be considered as a recommendation or investment advice by Equentis – Research & Ranking. We will not be liable for any losses that may occur. Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. Registration granted by SEBI, membership of BASL & the certification from NISM in no way guarantee the performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.

Recent reports about the United Arab Emirates (UAE) offering a Golden Visa to Indian nationals at a significantly lower cost, around ₹23 lakh, have stirred fresh interest. 

The news reported that a new, low-cost Golden Visa program was being tested for both Indian and Bangladeshi citizens, offering long-term residency benefits at a significantly reduced price. 

This created a buzz on social media. But the excitement soon turned into confusion, as UAE officials have not confirmed any changes to the current Golden Visa rules.

Here’s a simple look at what’s being reported, what the visa claims to offer, and what experts and officials have said.

Social Media Buzz vs. Official Silence

The viral reports claimed that the UAE had introduced a new pilot Golden Visa program that would allow Indians and Bangladeshis to secure long-term residency by paying just AED 100,000 (around ₹23 lakh). This would be a dramatic drop from the usual AED 2 million (over ₹4.6 crore) investment requirement for the visa.

However, UAE-based officials and experts have firmly stated that they are unaware of any such changes. The Emirates News Agency, the official channel for all government announcements in the UAE, has published no updates on any revised visa program. 

Source: Economic Times

What is a Golden Visa?

A Golden Visa is a residency program that allows high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) to settle abroad, either immediately or after retirement. It is particularly popular among those looking to relocate permanently for better lifestyle, tax benefits, or investment opportunities.

By obtaining a Golden Visa, individuals gain legal residency in the host country, along with rights such as living, working, studying, and accessing healthcare services.

Investment-Linked Golden Visas: The Current Norm

The UAE’s Golden Visa scheme, introduced in 2019, is a government-regulated long-term residency program designed for investors, skilled professionals, entrepreneurs, and individuals with exceptional talents. Common ways to qualify for the visa include:

• Real Estate Investment: A minimum investment of AED 2 million in UAE property
  
• Business Ownership or Investment
  
• Exceptional Achievements in Science, Arts, Sports, or Media

These routes have helped thousands of global citizens, particularly wealthy Indians, relocate to Dubai for various reasons, including lifestyle benefits, tax advantages, better education, and business opportunities.

Impact on Indian Investors and Real Estate Developers

In recent years, a sizable number of Indian nationals have opted for UAE Golden Visas through the property investment route. Real estate developers in Dubai often market properties as “Golden Visa eligible,” targeting Indian investors.

According to experts, around 7–8% of Dubai property buyers every year are Indians hoping to get the Golden Visa. If the visa norms are eased, it could impact developer pricing and inventory strategies.

A sudden change to a lower-cost visa would shift the demand away from high-end properties and potentially impact the business models of Dubai developers targeting Indian buyers.

Authorities Clarify: Visa Rules Remain Unchanged

Though no official statement has been released, UAE authorities have quietly clarified to visa facilitators and media outlets that no policy change has been introduced and the Golden Visa is not for sale. It may be granted based on criteria such as significant investment in real estate, business ownership, or exceptional achievements. All nominations undergo a thorough government-led vetting process.

The current guidelines continue to require a formal nomination or qualification under specific economic or professional categories.

Five Countries That Offer Golden Visas

1. United Arab Emirates (UAE)

• Program: Nomination‑based Golden Visa
  
• How it works: Indians can secure pre‑approval from home without travelling to Dubai.
  
• Cost: AED 100,000 (about ₹23.3 lakh) for lifetime residency.
  

2. United States

• Program: Trump Gold Card (currently on hold)
  
• How it works: Designed for high‑net‑worth investors seeking permanent residence.
  
• Cost: US $5 million investment.
  

3. New Zealand

• Program: Active Investor Plus Visa (launched September 2022)
  
• How it works: Live, work, and study indefinitely after meeting investment and stay requirements.
  
• Cost: Starts at NZD 5 million.
  

4. Canada

• Program: Start‑Up Visa
  
• How it works: Grants permanent residence to entrepreneurs and active investors establishing or expanding businesses in Canada.
  
• Cost: Roughly US $215,000–275,000 (varies by start‑up and includes all fees).
  

5. Singapore

• Program: Global Investor Program
  
• How it works: For foreign entrepreneurs, business owners, and senior managers who invest or start businesses in Singapore; permanent residence is approved in 9–12 months.
  
• Cost: Investment requirement ranges from SGD 10 million to SGD 50 million, depending on business size.

Source: LiveMint

Will UAE Eventually Relax Visa Rules?

The UAE’s Vision Dubai 2033 outlines an ambitious plan to double the country’s economy and population. To achieve this, attracting skilled professionals and high-net-worth individuals is critical.

While a more liberal visa regime in the future is not off the table, there is no evidence yet that such a low-cost Golden Visa scheme has been launched. If introduced, it could reshape how Indians and other foreign nationals pursue long-term residency in the UAE.

Conclusion

In summary, while social media and media reports in India have been abuzz with news of a low-cost UAE Golden Visa, there is currently no official confirmation from UAE authorities about any change in policy. Visa experts and consultants continue to rely on existing guidelines, which require a mix of investment, talent, or nominations for visa eligibility.

Until official updates are released through verified UAE government channels, potential applicants should remain cautious and avoid acting on unverified reports.

Disclaimer Note: The securities quoted, if any, are for illustration only and are not recommendatory. This article is for education purposes only and shall not be considered as a recommendation or investment advice by Equentis – Research & Ranking. We will not be liable for any losses that may occur. Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. Registration granted by SEBI, membership of BASL & the certification from NISM in no way guarantee the performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.

India and Russia have taken a notable step to strengthen their economic partnership by advancing six new strategic investment projects. The agreements were finalized during the 8th Session of the India-Russia Working Group on Priority Investment Projects (IRWG-PIP), held recently in New Delhi.

The session was part of the broader India-Russia Intergovernmental Commission on Trade, Economic, Scientific, Technological, and Cultural Cooperation. It was co-chaired by Amardeep Singh Bhatia, Secretary of the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (India), and Vladimir Ilichev, Deputy Minister of the Ministry for Economic Development (Russia).

These projects reflect both nations’ commitment to deepening bilateral cooperation, though challenges remain on the road ahead.

What Was Agreed?

Both sides signed a protocol outlining the inclusion of these six new projects and reviewed the progress made since the 7th session. The discussions took place in a constructive atmosphere, reflecting a shared commitment to expand cooperation across key sectors.

The six projects will focus on sectors of mutual interest, though specific project details remain under wraps. The goal is to promote sustained bilateral investment and increase economic engagement between the two nations.
Source: Economic Times

India-Russia Investment Forum: Strong Industry Participation

Immediately following the session, the 2nd Edition of the India-Russia Investment Forum was held in collaboration with Invest India, the Indian Chamber of Commerce (ICC), and the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation.

The forum saw participation from over 80 businesses, including entrepreneurs, financial institutions, cargo companies, business chambers, and officials from both countries. This event served as a platform to explore new avenues for economic collaboration.

A Longstanding Strategic Partnership

India and Russia have shared a close partnership for decades. This relationship was formalized with the Declaration on the India-Russia Strategic Partnership in October 2000 during President Vladimir Putin’s visit to India.

In December 2010, the partnership was upgraded to a “Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership”, covering areas such as defense, trade, energy, science and technology, culture, and people-to-people ties.
Source: Business Standard

Recent Economic Engagements

In July 2024, during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Moscow, both countries held discussions on boosting collaboration in nuclear energy, shipbuilding, and education.

● Russian state nuclear firm Rosatom showed interest in building six new nuclear power units in India.
● The Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) and India’s Enso Group agreed to joint investments worth 20 billion rubles in shipbuilding.
● Russian oil major Rosneft has invested around $20 billion in India.

These numbers show a pattern of increasing economic trust and capital flow between the two nations.
Source: Economic Times

Risks and Challenges Ahead

Despite strong intentions and historical goodwill, there are practical hurdles that both India and Russia will need to navigate. These include geopolitical pressures, financial systems, regulatory issues, and infrastructure constraints. Let’s break them down by country:

Challenges for India

1. Payment and Settlement Complexities

India is currently facing issues due to sanctions on Russia, which impact global banking channels. There is an incomplete convertibility of the Indian Rupee, making it difficult to process payments for joint projects. India is exploring systems like RuPay and UPI integration with Russia’s MIR and FPS to ease cross-border transactions. Source: Indianembassy-Moscow

2. Regulatory Coordination

India’s regulatory environment is complex, with layered approvals at both central and state levels. Collaborative investment projects, especially in sectors like energy and infrastructure, require multi-agency coordination. Aligning regulations with Russian standards can be time-consuming.

3. Logistics and Connectivity Issues

India needs to develop and upgrade trade routes, especially through the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). Efficient movement of goods is crucial for projects in shipbuilding, oil and gas, and machinery, and current logistics systems are yet to reach optimal capacity.
Source: PMIndia.Gov.In

Challenges for Russia

1. Impact of Western Sanctions

Russia continues to be under economic sanctions from Western countries due to its involvement in the Ukraine conflict. This limits its ability to engage freely in global financial systems. Even though India has not joined these sanctions, the secondary impact affects Russian firms’ ability to execute international projects.

2. Capital and Investment Constraints

Many Russian firms, including state-owned giants, face capital constraints and have reduced access to foreign credit. While there is intent to invest, fulfilling significant capital commitments—like the proposed $20 billion in oil infrastructure—could be challenging in the current environment.

3. Technology Access and Standardization

Technological gaps exist, particularly in high-tech sectors like nuclear energy, defense systems, and IT. Russian standards and protocols may not always align with Indian systems. This could delay the implementation of strategic projects unless addressed through coordinated planning. Source: Indianembassy-Moscow

Shared Risks for Both Countries

1. Geopolitical Tensions and Global Pressures

The India-Russia partnership exists in a complex geopolitical environment. While India has maintained a neutral stance on major global conflicts, Russia’s strained ties with the West—especially due to the Ukraine crisis—have created global diplomatic pressures. Joint projects may face scrutiny or resistance from Western partners, especially in sectors involving sensitive technology, defense, or energy.

2. Currency Volatility and Settlement Mechanisms

Neither country uses the US dollar as the primary mode of bilateral settlement anymore, but that brings in new risks. Currency volatility—especially fluctuations in the ruble and rupee—can impact long-term projects’ value and cost structure. While efforts are underway to use local currencies (INR-RUB), a lack of a fully reliable settlement mechanism remains a technical and operational risk.

3. Mismatch in Business Expectations and Project Timelines

Business culture, legal systems, and project execution timelines differ between India and Russia. This can lead to communication gaps, misaligned expectations, or delays. Complex strategic projects, especially in infrastructure or nuclear energy, need synchronized regulatory clearances and operational timelines.

4. Technology Transfer and Data Governance Issues

Several upcoming projects may involve technology sharing, especially in the nuclear, defense, and digital sectors. Differing views on data privacy, IP rights, cybersecurity protocols, and compliance standards can become friction points. Aligning these technical and legal frameworks is essential but can be challenging.

5. Transport and Connectivity Infrastructure

Physical connectivity between India and Russia remains limited. Although promising, the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) is still under development. Without strong port-to-port and inland linkages, logistics delays or cost escalations may arise, affecting the competitiveness of trade-related investment projects. Source: FICCI

Looking Forward

The recent developments are not just about signing protocols but signal a renewed phase in India-Russia economic relations. Both countries have built a high level of trust over the years, and their investment partnership is seen as an extension of this broader strategic alliance.

As they move forward with these six new strategic projects, India and Russia must keep a close watch on regulatory alignments, geopolitical conditions, and practical constraints around financing and logistics.

This new momentum offers both promise and complexity—and how the two nations handle the challenges will shape the future of their economic cooperation.

Disclaimer Note: The securities quoted, if any, are for illustration only and are not recommendatory. This article is for education purposes only and shall not be considered as a recommendation or investment advice by Equentis – Research & Ranking. We will not be liable for any losses that may occur. Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. Registration granted by SEBI, membership of BASL & the certification from NISM in no way guarantee the performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.

Global markets are heading in opposite directions. While Wall Street struggles with uncertainty, Hong Kong’s stock market is on a winning streak, drawing the attention of investors worldwide. The Hang Seng Index has surged past 24,000 for the first time in three years, fueled by billions in fresh investments from mainland China.

Hong Kong’s stock market has emerged as one of the biggest beneficiaries of the turbulence surrounding Donald Trump’s initial days in office. Since his presidency began, the Hang Seng Index has soared by 21%, making it the top-performing market globally. In stark contrast, the S&P 500 has declined by approximately 7%, falling behind most other major indices. The gap between these two benchmarks has now widened to levels not seen since the dotcom crash in 2000, based on a 90-day correlation measure.

This rapid growth comes when U.S. tech stocks are underperforming, economic uncertainty looms over Wall Street, and China’s government is implementing aggressive stimulus measures. But what exactly is driving this contrast? Here are five key reasons why Hong Kong’s market is booming while Wall Street faces turmoil.

Influx of Mainland Chinese Capital

One of the most significant factors behind Hong Kong’s stock market surge is the massive influx of capital from mainland Chinese investors. The numbers speak for themselves:

• On February 26, 2025, mainland investors bought HK$22.4 billion ($2.88 billion) worth of Hong Kong stocks – the highest daily purchase since early 2021.
• The next day, an additional HK$5.5 billion was invested, continuing the strong momentum.
• The Tracker Fund of Hong Kong saw over HK$9 billion in purchases, showing investor preference for diversified exposure to the market.

This wave of investments has provided Hong Kong’s market with a liquidity boost, strengthening investor sentiment and increasing stock prices. The Hang Seng Index has responded by climbing to a 20-month high.

Know More:  SEBI Registered Investment Advisory |  Stock Investment Advisory

Beijing’s Economic Stimulus Measures

China’s economic policies have played a crucial role in fueling the rally in Hong Kong’s markets. Over the past few months, Beijing has rolled out extensive stimulus measures, and the impact is evident in market performance:

• Between September 13 and October 2, 2024, China’s total market capitalization surged from $7.95 trillion to $10.1 trillion, a massive $2 trillion increase.
• Hong Kong’s stock market capitalization also rose sharply from $4.79 trillion to $6 trillion during the same period.

This dramatic rise reflects the effect of Beijing’s financial support initiatives, which include:

• Cutting interest rates to make borrowing cheaper and stimulate economic activity.
• Offering targeted fiscal support to struggling sectors, ensuring liquidity and market confidence.
• Implementing investor-friendly policies that promote capital inflows into Hong Kong’s market.

These measures have reinforced Hong Kong’s position as a financial hub, attracting investors seeking stability and growth.

Resurgence of Chinese Technology Giants

Hong Kong’s stock market has received a significant boost from the resurgence of Chinese technology companies, which have experienced a considerable rebound in valuations. A key catalyst has been the rise of China’s AI sector:

• The launch of DeepSeek’s AI-powered chatbot has intensified the global competition in artificial intelligence, positioning China’s tech firms as serious contenders to U.S. giants.
• This renewed enthusiasm for Chinese technology stocks has pushed the Hang Seng Index above 24,000 points for the first time in three years.
• Alibaba, Tencent, and Meituan have been among the biggest gainers, with their stock prices rising sharply as investors return to the Chinese tech sector.

As global investors look beyond the struggling U.S. tech market, China’s technology stocks have emerged as a preferred alternative, reinforcing Hong Kong’s stock rally.

Shift in Global Investment Focus

Investor sentiment is shifting as the U.S. market grapples with uncertainty, leading global funds to reallocate capital toward Hong Kong and Chinese equities. Several factors are driving this shift:

• U.S. tech stocks have been struggling, with major names like Nvidia and Tesla experiencing significant losses in 2025.
• Uncertainty surrounding U.S. economic policies and tariffs under the Trump administration has created a cautious investment environment.
• The rise of Chinese AI and tech companies has attracted international investors, shifting capital flows toward Hong Kong’s market.

As Wall Street faces headwinds, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has positioned itself as a more stable and promising investment destination, further fueling its momentum.

Divergent Economic Policies and Market Sentiment

The economic policies of China and the United States are moving in opposite directions, influencing investor sentiment and driving contrasting market performances:

• U.S. markets are under pressure due to concerns over tariffs, inflation, and tech underperformance.
• Conversely, China has introduced aggressive pro-growth policies that have bolstered investor confidence and supported the rally in Hong Kong’s stocks.
• Wall Street has seen a wave of sell-offs, whereas Hong Kong’s market has benefited from renewed optimism and strong capital inflows.

As a result, while U.S. investors navigate market volatility, Hong Kong has emerged as a financial hotspot, with investors capitalizing on its upward trajectory.

Conclusion

The stark contrast between Hong Kong’s booming stock market and Wall Street’s struggles stems from several key factors. Mainland China’s capital inflows and Beijing’s economic stimulus have fueled Hong Kong’s growth, while the resurgence of Chinese tech giants has drawn global investors. A shift in investment focus away from the U.S. and diverging economic policies have further widened the gap. As Hong Kong solidifies its position as a global financial hub, investors are closely watching these trends, which could shape the future of global markets.

Disclaimer Note: The securities quoted, if any, are for illustration only and are not recommendatory. This article is for education purposes only and shall not be considered as a recommendation or investment advice by Equentis – Research & Ranking. We will not be liable for any losses that may occur. Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. Registration granted by SEBI, membership of BASL & the certification from NISM in no way guarantee the performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.

United States

The US market started the last week of 2024 on an optimistic note, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes hitting record highs due to increased demand for growth stocks. 

The S&P 500 index rose 0.96% during the month, and the Nasdaq rose 3.32%. Substantial gains in consumer discretionary and healthcare stocks supported the indexes. Last week, US consumers spent nearly $11 billion online on Black Friday sales, shattering records with an increase in retail sales of 3.4% from last year. 

During the week, the US Labor Department released November Non-farm Payroll data. Nonfarm payrolls rose sharply from October, creating 227,000 new positions and increasing the number of job opportunities. 

Also, Bitcoin crossed the $100K milestone after Trump named pro-crypto Paul Atkins to head the US market regulator, SEC. 

Eurozone

Political instability in France is affecting investor sentiment in the Eurozone area. Key macroeconomic data indicate the economy slowed down in the fourth quarter of the year. 

Retail trade volumes in the region fell 0.5% sequentially in October after rising 0.5% in September, owing primarily to lower sales of non-food products and automobile fuel. Manufacturing in Germany has continued to struggle. Industrial output in the country declined by 1.0% month on month, against the expectations of a 1.2% recovery. Factory orders fell 1.5% monthly, with demand for machinery and equipment falling the most.

Following this, the market is also anticipating a faster pace of policy easing by the European Central Bank.

During the week, key indices such as the CAC 40, DAX, and FTSE advanced by 2.65%, 5.22%, and 0.26%, respectively. 

Asia

The emerging political situation in South Korea concerns investors worldwide and in the Asian region. In Japan, the weakness in the Yen against the USD supported the profit growth outlook for Japan’s export heavy industries. The benchmark index, Nikkei 225, rose 2.33% during the week. 

In China, increased hope of additional stimulus measures, along with resilient manufacturing data, supported the stock market during the week. The Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.28% and 2.33%, respectively. 

The Indian stock market, meanwhile, staged a strong recovery this week, with the Nifty 50 rising by 2.7% on the back of attractive valuations in large-cap stocks. 

Top Highlights of the Global Stock Market This Week

• This week, the OPEC+ group decided to postpone the planned supply increases and extend the deep supply cuts to the end of 2026, citing a slowdown in global demand. The group accounts for nearly 50% of the world’s oil supply. 

• In the US, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell indicated that the US economy is in good shape, and any future rate cut move needs a cautious approach. The labor market showed signs of cooling, with better non-farm payroll data released for November.
  
• After reporting a slowdown in growth in the July-September quarter, Canada reported another economic shocker. The jobless rate touched an eight-year high of 6.8% in November, the highest level since July 2017, thus boosting calls for a 50-bps rate cut.
  
• Despite warnings of an economic slowdown, the German stock market index, DAX, broke the 20,000 barrier for the first time, rising 5.22% throughout the week, supported by gains in the US and Asian stock markets.

• The Russian economy is slowing down, and inflation is double the government’s target of 2%, on the back of increased war spending. Reports suggest the Russian central bank is contemplating raising key rates by 200 bps to 23% after the Rouble lost 15% of its value against the USD in November.
  
• In its December policy meeting, RBI significantly reduced India’s GDP growth estimate for FY25 to 6.6% from 7.2% and raised the inflation estimate to 4.5% for the Jan-March 2025 quarter. 

Key Economic Events to Watch in Global Markets in the Upcoming Week

• The US Department of Labor Statistics is expected to release the November 2024 inflation data on December 11th. Other key data released during the week will be wholesale trade sales for October and the Producer Price Index for November. 

• The European Central Bank’s rate cut decision is expected on December 12th. Analysts predict a 25 bps cut in December and four more rate cuts in 2025.
  
• UK’s GDP data for October will be released on 13th December.

• Japan will release its July-September quarter GDP growth numbers on December 8th. The country reported 0.9% GDP in the quarter. 

• The Reserve Bank of Australia will release its interest rate decision on December 9th.
  
• Germany will release its CPI monthly for November on December 10th.
  
• In India, the government will release the WPI Inflation data for November 13th December. 

The week ahead holds key events and data releases that could shape market trends. Investors should remain watchful of emerging opportunities and challenges as economic policies and global dynamics evolve.

Disclaimer Note: The securities quoted, if any, are for illustration only and are not recommendatory. This article is for education purposes only and shall not be considered as a recommendation or investment advice by Equentis – Research & Ranking. We will not be liable for any losses that may occur. Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. Registration granted by SEBI, membership of BASL & the certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.