The US just escalated trade tensions with India. On August 7, US President Donald Trump’s administration officially imposed a 25% tariff on Indian goods. By August 27, that figure will double to 50%, as an additional 25% tariff comes into effect. This move is intended as a penalty for India’s ongoing purchase of oil from Russia.
This latest round of tariffs, added to existing import duties, could sharply disrupt India’s export ecosystem. Indian exporters, especially those in labour-intensive industries, are bracing for what could be a significant blow.
Let’s break down what’s happening, who is likely to be most affected, what the numbers say, and how India is positioning itself to handle the fallout.
What Are the Tariffs and Why Were They Imposed?
The newly announced 50% US tariffs are not replacing existing duties—they are in addition to them. These tariffs are the result of political friction between Washington and New Delhi, triggered by India’s continued imports of Russian oil.
According to the White House, this move is meant to penalize India economically. However, the ripple effects could extend far beyond trade policy, impacting GDP growth, employment, and the stability of India’s currency.
Which Sectors Will Be Affected?
The 50% tariff directly impacts India’s major export sectors to the US. According to estimates by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), this could reduce US-bound exports by 40–50%.
Top sectors facing the brunt:
- Textiles and clothing – $10.3 billion
- Gems and jewellery – $12 billion
- Shrimp – $2.2 billion
- Leather and footwear – $1.2 billion
- Chemicals – $2.3 billion
- Machinery and mechanical appliances – approx. $9 billion
These sectors are highly price-sensitive. With the additional cost of tariffs, Indian products will become significantly more expensive in the US market, making them less competitive.
Source: Hindustan Times
Sector-Wise Duty Breakdown
According to GTRI, some Indian products now face extremely high total duties:
- Organic chemicals – 54%
- Carpets – 52.9%
- Knitted clothes – 63.9%
- Woven clothes – 60.3%
- Textiles, made-ups – 59%
- Diamonds, gold – 52.1%
- Machinery and mechanical appliances – 51.3%
- Furniture and mattresses – 52.3%
These numbers indicate a substantial margin squeeze. In several cases, profit margins may vanish entirely.
Source: Hindustan Times
What the Experts Say
Shrimp Exports
The MD of seafood exporter Megaa Moda noted that Indian shrimp already faces a 2.49% anti-dumping duty and a 5.77% countervailing duty. With the new 25% tariff, the total duty will rise to 33.26%. In comparison, Ecuador’s shrimp exports to the US face only a 15% tariff—placing India at a severe disadvantage.
Textile Sector
The Confederation of Indian Textile Industry (CITI) expressed concern that the new tariff regime could severely damage one of India’s largest export categories.
Gems & Jewellery
The MD at Kama Jewelry stated that about 55% of India’s shipments to the US are now under direct threat. He estimated that the tariffs put Indian exporters at a 30–35% disadvantage compared to peers in countries with lower tariffs.
Several exporters have reported cancellation or deferment of orders as US buyers reassess their sourcing strategies.
Source: Hindustan Times
Macroeconomic Impact
The 50% US tariff doesn’t just affect individual export sectors—it could ripple across the entire Indian economy. Here’s how:
1. Exports May Drop by Up to 60%
According to Bloomberg Economics, outbound shipments to the US may decline by as much as 60% due to the steep hike in tariffs. This would be a severe blow, considering the US accounts for nearly 19% of India’s total exports.
India exported goods worth $86.5 billion to the US in FY25. Even a 40% drop could result in a loss of over $34 billion in export revenues.
2. Impact on GDP
Bloomberg economists project a 1.1% decline in GDP over the medium term. In context, the RBI’s projected GDP growth for 2025-26 is 6.5%. A 1.1% drag would bring this down to around 5.4%, marking a significant slowdown for one of the world’s fastest-growing economies.
3. Current Account and Rupee Volatility
Citigroup highlighted broader implications for India’s current account deficit and capital inflows. If export earnings drop and foreign investors anticipate weaker growth, the rupee could come under renewed pressure, forcing the RBI to intervene to stabilise the currency.
With the rupee already hovering near record lows, this adds another layer of economic strain.
4. Pressure on Employment
Many of the impacted sectors—textiles, footwear, gems & jewellery, and seafood—are labour-intensive. A sharp drop in exports could lead to job losses in MSME clusters, further stressing domestic demand and consumption.
5. MSMEs Hit the Hardest
Smaller exporters are the least equipped to absorb sudden tariff shocks. They often operate on thin margins and have limited access to affordable credit or legal recourse in global markets. For them, this disruption could lead to order cancellations, client loss, and in some cases, business closures.
Source: Hindustan Times
How Is India Responding?
The Indian government has criticized the tariffs as “unfair and unjustified,” pointing out that India is being singled out even as other countries continue purchasing Russian oil. In parallel, officials have indicated efforts to redirect exports toward alternate markets in South Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
1. The 20,000 Cr. Export Promotion Mission
To cushion the blow, the Indian government is finalising a Rs 20,000 crore mission aimed at protecting exporters. The mission is being led by the ministries of commerce, MSME, and finance. It includes five pillars:
- Trade finance
- Non-trade finance (regulatory and market access)
- Brand India and global positioning
- E-commerce hubs and warehousing
- Trade facilitation initiatives
Ajay Sahai, DG & CEO of FIEO, explained that the mission may offer eased collateral requirements and interest equalisation for MSMEs. He noted that exporters may experience temporary losses, especially if the India-US Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) is not finalized soon.
2. Expanded Interest Equalisation Scheme
Currently, the scheme supports MSMEs and select exporters with subsidised interest rates. FIEO has proposed:
- Extension of the scheme to all countries, not just developing ones.
- Increased rate of equalisation, especially for sectors under tariff pressure like textiles and leather.
- This would make export loans more affordable and enhance short-term price competitiveness.
3. RoDTEP and RoSCTL Scheme Adjustments
Industry voices, including EY’s Agneshwar Sen, are calling for:
- Higher reimbursement rates under these schemes to reflect new cost structures.
- Wider coverage to ensure most exports qualify for some level of embedded tax/duty refund.
- This would directly lower the net production cost for exporters and partially offset the tariff blow.
4. Lower Testing & Certification Charges
The Export Inspection Council (EIC) currently levies various charges for quality checks, especially in food, agriculture, pharma, and chemicals. The government is exploring:
- Reducing or waiving these charges for MSMEs.
- Simplifying mandatory testing protocols, especially for low-volume, low-margin exporters.
This move would lower compliance costs and help exporters stay price-competitive.
5. Digitised Access to Export Benefits
Many MSMEs are unaware of or excluded from:
- EXIM Bank support
- Export Credit Guarantee Corporation (ECGC) insurance
- Government subsidy schemes
Officials are discussing the creation of a unified digital platform to:
- Apply for export loans, interest equalisation, and risk cover
- Track application status
- Access scheme eligibility in real time
This step is aimed at democratizing access to trade incentives for smaller firms.
6. Customs and GST-Related Relief
Exporters have flagged issues like delayed GST refunds and customs clearances. To speed up working capital flows, suggestions include:
- Faster GST refunds (within 7–10 days)
- Waiver or deferment of customs duties on inputs for export-bound goods
- Automation of refund processes
7. Strategic Market Diversification
Trade bodies and policy experts are advocating a shift toward:
- Countries with existing FTAs (UK, UAE, Australia)
- Emerging markets (Africa, Latin America, Central Asia)
While this is a medium-to-long-term approach, early-stage brand building, buyer engagement, and trade missions are being planned using the export promotion fund.
8. MSME-Centric Relief
Sectors like gems & jewellery, textiles, and auto ancillaries will be prioritised. Proposals include:
- Production-linked incentives (PLIs) for affected sub-sectors
- Cluster-level intervention programs
- Short-term subsidies to retain workforce and production levels
Source: The Economic Times
Focus on Alternate Markets & FTAs
Experts believe the government is placing more emphasis on markets covered under new and upcoming Free Trade Agreements. The UK and EU are being viewed as essential destinations where an early harvest deal is expected.
According to trade policy experts, building strong alternative export destinations is essential, as relying on the US amid geopolitical uncertainty is a long-term risk.
Conclusion
India’s export ecosystem is facing a formidable challenge in the wake of President Trump’s 50% tariff hike. With sectors like textiles, gems and jewellery, and seafood in the line of fire, the broader economic impact may extend to GDP growth, job creation, and currency stability.
While exporters and the government are actively exploring mitigation strategies—ranging from fund support to diversification, the next few quarters are likely to be crucial in determining how India adapts to the evolving global trade landscape.
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