News

Monday, 12 May, was a notable rally for Fusion Finance, as its stock price climbed over 8% in recent trading sessions. This was following the successful completion of the Warburg Pincus-backed NBFC’s ₹800 crore rights issue. The response to the offering was overwhelming, with the issue being oversubscribed by 1.5 times, indicating strong investor faith in the company’s future, especially when the microfinance sector is regaining its growth momentum.  Source: Economic Times

So, what does this event imply, why have the markets responded positively, and what existing and potential investors should take away from it? Let’s break it down. 

What Is a Rights Issue and Why Did Fusion Opt for It?

A rights issue is a mechanism through which companies raise funds by offering additional shares to existing shareholders, typically at a discounted price. Fusion Finance priced its issue at ₹270 per share, considerably below the market price at the time of announcement. 

The company stated that the fresh capital will help fortify its balance sheet, allowing it to tap into new opportunities and sustain long-term value creation for its stakeholders. The amount raised is also set to be used to improve Fusion’s Tier-1 capital and support loan growth in underserved rural areas. The funds will also boost Fusion’s capital adequacy ratio, reinforcing its standing as one of the best-capitalized microfinance institutions in India. Fusion Finance is also actively strengthening its leadership team.
Source: LiveMint 

In its stock exchange filing, Fusion Finance announced that the rights issue, launched on April 15, 2025, received strong support from institutional investors (including promoter Honey Rose Investment Ltd  – an affiliate of Warburg Pincus LLC, and Creation Investments Fusion LLC). On Monday, shares of the Delhi-based non-banking finance company rose 8.37% intraday, touching ₹166.

The rights issue offered up to 6.11 crore partially paid-up equity shares at ₹131 each (including a ₹121 premium), raising a total of ₹799.86 crore. According to the company’s May 12 disclosure, the funds will enhance capital adequacy and reinforce its standing in India’s highly competitive microfinance landscape.

Why the Timing Matters

Fusion Micro Finance’s capital raise through its rights issue—oversubscribed by a significant 150%—comes at a strategically opportune moment. The microfinance sector is currently witnessing a healthy rebound, recovering from the pandemic-era disruptions that put immense pressure on borrower repayments and liquidity flows. This resurgence in sectoral confidence has coincided perfectly with Fusion’s need to strengthen its capital base.

The ₹488-crore rights issue does more than just shore up financials—it sends a strong signal of investor trust, which is crucial in a segment as sentiment-driven as microfinance. With fresh capital, Fusion is now well-positioned to scale its operations, particularly in underpenetrated Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities, where demand for microloans is rising amid economic normalization.

Moreover, this timely infusion significantly boosts Fusion’s capital adequacy ratio, enhancing its credibility with regulators like the RBI. A stronger capital base also opens the door for higher lending thresholds, allowing Fusion to deepen its market presence and diversify its borrower base. The capital raise is not just about balance sheet strength—it’s a calculated move to leverage macro tailwinds and gain a competitive edge in a growing market. Source: LiveMint

Financial Performance and Business Outlook

As of December 31, 2024, the company reported an Asset Under Management (AUM) of ₹10,599.37 crore and operated through 1,506 branches spanning 22 states and three union territories. Founded in 2010, Fusion Finance caters to around 3.66 million clients, mainly underserved and unserved women entrepreneurs in rural India. Its focus on small-ticket loans to self-employed women creates a niche that remains underpenetrated by larger NBFCs and banks.

IIFL Capital Services Limited acted as the lead manager for the issue, CRISIL Ratings Limited served as the monitoring agency, and Axis Bank Limited was appointed as the banker. Source: Business Line

Conclusion:

Fusion Finance’s successful rights issue and the subsequent 7% surge in its share price reflect robust interest from both institutional and retail investors. With its capital structure now reinforced, Fusion is better equipped to pursue its rural and semi-urban expansion plans, particularly when microfinance demand is steadily climbing in India’s hinterlands.

While challenges such as credit risk management and regulatory oversight remain integral to the company’s long-term trajectory, its current momentum highlights its evolving role in India’s broader financial inclusion landscape. As Fusion channels fresh capital into grassroots lending and builds deeper penetration into underserved geographies, it represents a notable case study in the ongoing transformation of the country’s financial services ecosystem.

Disclaimer Note: The securities quoted, if any, are for illustration only and are not recommendatory. This article is for education purposes only and shall not be considered as a recommendation or investment advice by Equentis – Research & Ranking. We will not be liable for any losses that may occur. Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. Registration granted by SEBI, membership of BASL & the certification from NISM in no way guarantee the performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.

FAQs

In the fast-paced world of financial markets, volatility is often the only constant. On May 8, 2025, a convergence of geopolitical events, including renewed Indo-Pakistan military tensions and escalating global tariff conflicts, created a turbulence trifecta that impacted markets across India and Asia. From a sharp spike in India’s VIX index to fluctuations in gold prices and a surge in Asian currencies, investors were forced to reassess risk and reallocate assets rapidly.

The Indo-Pakistan situation intensified after India carried out a pre-emptive strike across the border in response to a recent terror attack, stirring fears of broader conflict. Meanwhile, U.S. President Trump’s abrupt tariff escalations added another layer of uncertainty, prompting a notable shift in investor behaviour worldwide.

Let’s explore how these key developments impacted market behaviour on multiple fronts. Understanding them in detail can help investors, analysts, and policymakers better anticipate future shifts and take strategic actions.

1. India VIX Surges Amid Renewed Geopolitical Tensions

The India VIX index, a key barometer of market fear, surged past the psychologically significant level of 20 on May 8, marking an 11 % intraday rise to 21.16. This sharp spike reflects escalating nervousness among investors, triggered largely by mounting geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan.

At 2:55 PM IST, the Sensex dropped 318.76 points (0.39 %) to 80,428.02, while the Nifty 50 fell 127.70 points (0.52 %) to 24,286.70, despite overall consolidation. Market participants are clearly bracing for a breakout in either direction, with critical support and resistance levels being watched closely. (Source: www.moneycontrol.com)

According to Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities: “Nifty’s next breakout level is 24,500. A move beyond could lead the index toward 24,600 to 24,800. Conversely, a dip below 24,200 could trigger aggressive selling.” (Source: www.moneycontrol.com)

This increased market tension followed India’s pre-emptive military strike across the Pakistan border, an action taken in response to the Pahalgam terror attack. Though analysts believe much of the geopolitical risk had already been priced in, investor sentiment turned defensive.

Still, the market found pockets of optimism in news of progress on India’s Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the United Kingdom. The announcement prompted rallies in textiles, chemicals, and the auto sectors. Export-oriented industries benefit most, providing a short-term cushion against broader volatility.

Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services, noted:

“The market’s resilience amid cross-border tensions suggests investor confidence in de-escalation. Additionally, developments around the UK FTA are lifting sentiment in export-oriented sectors.” (Source: www.moneycontrol.com)

Looking ahead, traders and institutional players are likely to monitor further geopolitical developments, particularly around the India-Pakistan border, as well as key economic policy announcements that could drive sentiment either way.

2. Gold Prices Defy Global Trends Amid Rupee Weakness

While global gold prices fell sharply on May 8 following U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade agreement with the UK, domestic gold prices in India increased. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), June gold futures closed 0.14% higher at ₹96,307 per 10 grams, in sharp contrast to a 2.25% decline in global gold, which traded at $3,309.58 per 10 oz. (Source: www.moneycontrol.com)

Why This Divergence?

The primary driver was currency depreciation. The Indian rupee weakened by 1.04%, marking its steepest one-day drop over three years. As gold is dollar-priced, a weaker rupee inflates the domestic cost of imports, including precious metals.

Navneet Damani, Head of Research (Commodities) at Motilal Oswal, explained:

“Rupee weakness could increase domestic gold prices, especially if geopolitical tensions escalate. Even though global gold has retreated from its all-time highs, local prices remain buoyed by currency movements.” (Source: www.moneycontrol.com)

On May 8, June gold futures traded within a wide 1,942-point range, oscillating between ₹95,381 and ₹97,323. The uncertainty surrounding India’s cross-border conflict led many investors to park funds in gold, a traditional safe haven in times of crisis.(Source: www.moneycontrol.com)

Further contributing to this price movement were reports of Pakistan attempting low-grade drone and missile strikes in Jammu, Pathankot, Akhnoor, and Samba. These events added fuel to an already jittery sentiment.

Gold has long been viewed as a safe-haven asset that offers protection against uncertainty and inflation. Recent events remind us of its dual nature as both a commodity and a store of value, which becomes especially pronounced during times of economic and geopolitical stress.

3. Asian Currency Rally Redraws Wealth Management Landscape

In parallel with India’s domestic developments, Asia is experiencing a seismic shift in currency dynamics. A rally in Asian currencies, led by the Taiwan dollar, yuan, Singapore dollar, and Korean won, is prompting global investors to reconsider exposure to U.S. dollar-denominated assets.

President Trump’s tariff hikes on April 2 triggered a chain reaction. By May 8, the Singapore dollar had risen over 4%, bolstering the country’s position as a wealth management hub. Banks across the region are witnessing increased demand for forex and wealth products. (Source: www.livemint.com)

Tan Su Shan, CEO of DBS Group, said: “Stronger local currencies enhance client purchasing power and boost appetite for diversified financial instruments.” (Source: www.livemint.com)

United Overseas Bank CFO Leong Yung Chee echoed similar optimism: “We expect a pool of wealth to flow into Singapore, driven by favourable currency conditions and robust financial infrastructure.” (Source: www.livemint.com)

In Taiwan, an 8 % jump in currency value rattled the insurance sector, which traditionally invests heavily in U.S. bonds. Analysts like Michael Makdad from Morningstar predict that a prolonged dollar decline could shift investment flows toward local-currency-denominated instruments.

This shift is not limited to institutional investors. Retail clients also show increased interest in regional investments, influenced by better returns and favourable exchange rates. The trend will continue as Asia becomes a leading wealth creation and management hub.

Tailwinds and Headwinds

Although stronger local currencies boost purchasing power and wealth, they pose challenges. Exporters may face competitiveness issues, while companies may need to reassess hedging strategies to deal with increased currency volatility.

Noriaki Masuda of Mitsubishi UFJ Bank observed: “Sharp exchange rate movements may force Japanese firms to diversify beyond standard hedging practices, possibly restructuring business operations or increasing prices.” (Source: www.livemint.com)

This mixed landscape presents both opportunities and risks. While financial institutions are gearing up to capitalise on the influx of capital, manufacturing and export-oriented businesses must manage their cost structures and explore ways to maintain global competitiveness.

A Trifecta Redefining Global Financial Dynamics

May 8 was no ordinary trading day. From a surge in India’s VIX to sharp currency rallies and gold price anomalies, the day encapsulated how interconnected financial variables, geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic shifts, and investor sentiment can rapidly alter market dynamics.

Key Takeaways:

• India’s volatility index spiked due to the Indo-Pak border conflict, yet key indices remained range-bound.
• Gold prices in India rose despite global declines, driven by rupee depreciation.
• Asian currencies strengthened, shifting wealth management and forex strategies toward regional dominance.

Investors, wealth managers, and policy makers must now navigate a more complex financial terrain, where localised tensions can trigger global ripples, and where currency moves can redefine asset allocation for years to come. Staying informed, flexible, and forward-thinking will be essential for making sound decisions in this evolving landscape.

Disclaimer Note: The securities quoted, if any, are for illustration only and are not recommendatory. This article is for education purposes only and shall not be considered as a recommendation or investment advice by Equentis – Research & Ranking. We will not be liable for any losses that may occur. Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. Registration granted by SEBI, membership of BASL & the certification from NISM in no way guarantee the performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.

Godfrey Phillips India has seen a steep rise in its stock price in 2025. By May 6th, the share price had reached ₹8,989, marking a 63% increase since the beginning of the year. This movement signals a notable shift in how the market values the company. The rise sets a new record for the stock, reflecting a reassessment of the company’s prospects or current performance. It stands out as a sharp gain over a relatively short span.

Outperforming the Market and Sector Peers

While Godfrey Phillips India was scaling new heights, the broader market, represented by the Nifty 50, saw a much more modest increase of just 1% in the same period. More strikingly, some of its main competitors in the tobacco sector, like ITC and VST Industries, experienced declines in their stock values, falling by 12.5% and 20%, respectively. This makes Godfrey Phillips India’s performance even more noteworthy – it wasn’t just riding a general wave of market optimism. 

The stark contrast between Godfrey Phillips India’s 63% gain and the minimal 1% rise of the Nifty 50 strongly suggests that the company’s success is rooted in specific factors unique to its operations or the industry dynamics it navigates. Furthermore, the fact that key competitors like ITC and VST Industries witnessed negative stock performance during the same timeframe underscores the nature of Godfrey Phillips India’s upward trajectory. Source: Economic Times

Q3 FY25 Financial Results Show Growth

One of the primary drivers for this stock performance appears to be the company’s financial results for the third quarter of the fiscal year 2025, which ended in December 2024. Godfrey Phillips India reported a substantial 28% increase in its revenues, reaching ₹1,896.75 crore compared to the previous year. The company’s net profit soared 87% to ₹332 crore. This significant revenue and net profit jump indicates a marked improvement in the company’s operational efficiency and market traction. 

Key Financial Metrics for Q3 FY25:

• Revenue: ₹1,591.2 crore (up 27.3% YoY)
• Net Profit: ₹315.84 crore (up 48.7% YoY)
• Earnings Per Share (EPS): ₹61.00 (up 49.1% YoY)
• EBITDA: ₹358.8 crore (up 57.6% YoY)
• EBITDA Margin: 22.6% (up 440 basis points YoY)

Investors often view such financial performance as a strong indicator of a company’s underlying health and future potential, which can lead to increased demand for its stock. The specific figures of ₹1,896.75 crore in revenue and ₹332 crore in net profit provide evidence of this financial growth.

While some sources might present slightly different figures due to variations in reporting standards or the inclusion/exclusion of specific items like excise duty, the overarching theme across available information points to a strong and profitable quarter for Godfrey Phillips India. Source: Business Standard

Increase in Mutual Fund Holdings

According to publicly available shareholding data, mutual fund holdings in Godfrey Phillips India increased from 1.8% in December 2024 to 3% by March 2025. This rise in institutional investment reflects a change in portfolio allocation during that period. Over a longer timeframe, from June 2024 to March 2025, mutual fund ownership in the company has shown a steady upward trend.

Business Overview and Brand Portfolio

Godfrey Phillips India is a key player in India’s fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector. It operates under the umbrella of Modi Enterprises and boasts a portfolio of well-known cigarette brands, including Four Square, Red and White, Cavanders, Tipper, and North Pole. Additionally, the company has a significant agreement with Philip Morris to manufacture and distribute the globally recognized Marlboro brand within India. This strong brand presence in the market provides a solid foundation for its business. 

Godfrey Phillips India owns and markets several established cigarette brands such as Four Square, Red and White, Cavanders, Tipper, and North Pole. The company also manufactures and distributes Marlboro in India under a licensing agreement with Philip Morris. This partnership allows the company to operate with a globally recognized brand alongside its domestic portfolio.

Revenue Growth vs. Competitors

When we compare Godfrey Phillips India to its peers, the difference in performance becomes even clearer. While Godfrey Phillips India is smaller than ITC—its revenue is about 21% of ITC’s cigarettes business—it demonstrated much stronger quarterly revenue growth of nearly 15% in December 2024. In contrast, ITC’s quarterly revenue growth in cigarettes manufacturing was almost flat at just 0.8%. 

Even when compared to VST Industries, which is smaller than Godfrey Phillips with a revenue size of about 25%, Godfrey Phillips India showed stronger momentum. Although VST Industries reported a 2% rise in revenue in December 2024, its numbers fell by 4% every quarter in March 2025. This indicates that Godfrey Phillips India has been outperforming its main competitors in growth. 

Despite ITC’s dominant market share in the Indian cigarette market, Godfrey Phillips India’s revenue growth suggests it might effectively capture market opportunities or operate with greater agility. The contrasting performance with VST Industries further emphasizes Godfrey Phillips India’s strong position within the competitive landscape. Source: TobaccoTactics.org

Management and Governance

Following the passing of founder KK Modi in 2019, Godfrey Phillips India experienced internal disputes regarding ownership. These issues were addressed when Bina Modi assumed leadership, maintaining control over the company. In August 2024, Samir Modi was removed from the board, and Charu Modi was appointed executive director. Subsequently, in September, shareholders approved the re-appointment of Bina Modi as the managing director with 86.6% of the votes.

Bina Modi has publicly stated her commitment to preserving her husband’s legacy and has ruled out the possibility of selling the company to resolve family disputes. Source: Economic Times

Conclusion

Godfrey Phillips India’s stock performance in 2025, along with its financial results and institutional investment changes, provides insights into the company’s operations and market position. The company’s activities in the FMCG sector, particularly in tobacco products, and its management decisions have been notable during this period.

Disclaimer Note: The securities quoted, if any, are for illustration only and are not recommendatory. This article is for education purposes only and shall not be considered as a recommendation or investment advice by Equentis – Research & Ranking. We will not be liable for any losses that may occur. Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. Registration granted by SEBI, membership of BASL & the certification from NISM in no way guarantee the performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.

The financial year 2025-26 started with the Q4 declaration for the financial year 2024-25 from companies across various sectors in the Indian stock market. While some posted strong gains in profitability and revenue, particularly in financial services, tech, and consumer goods, others reported modest growth or declines, highlighting sector-specific challenges. The stock market’s response varied, with positive results boosting shares and weaker performances weighing them down. 

Some of the major companies that declared their Q4 results include the following:

Tata Consultancy Services:

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), a leading IT services provider, reported a mixed financial performance in Q4 FY25. 

Parameter	Figure	% Change
Revenue (Q4 FY25)	₹64,479 crore	5.29 YoY growth
Net Profit (Q4 FY25)	₹12,224 crore	1.65% YoY fall
Operating Margin	24.20%	–
Net Margin	19.00%	–

The company achieved a 6% year-on-year growth in annual revenue, crossing the $30 billion mark with ₹255,324 crore. However, TCS faced challenges, including the slowest revenue growth in four years and uncertainties around US tariffs affecting client deals. Additionally, the company announced a delay in salary hikes for FY26, indicating near-term cost management measures. TCS shares remained largely flat post-results, closing at ₹3289.55 on 11th April 2025, slightly lower than the previous day’s close of ₹3292.95. 

(source: Mint)

Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited:

HPCL, a major public sector oil marketing company, reported a positive financial performance in Q4 FY25. 

Parameter	Figure	% Change
Net Profit (Q4 FY25)	₹3,355 crore	18.02% YoY growth
Total Income (Q4 FY25)	₹1,19,126 crore	2.67% YoY fall
Crude Throughput	6.74 MMT	15.41% YoY growth
Domestic Sales	12.11 MMT	2.63% YoY growth
Export Sales	0.59 MMT	11.32% YoY growth

Additionally, HPCL reported a negative buffer of ₹10,894.53 crore due to the gap between the market-determined price of LPG cylinders and the effective cost to consumers, which the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas instructed OMCs to retain for future adjustments. Despite these developments, HPCL’s stock closed 3.3% lower at ₹396.90 ahead of the earnings announcement.

WIPRO:

Wipro reported a mixed financial performance for Q4 FY25.

Parameter	Figure	% Change
Revenue (Q4 FY25)	₹22,504.20 crore	1.33% YoY growth
Net Profit (Q4 FY25)	₹3,570 crore	25.9% YoY growth
IT Services Revenue	₹14,504 crore	2.3% YoY decline
Operating Margin (Q4)	17.50%	1.1% YoY expansion

For the full fiscal year 2025, Wipro achieved an 18.9% year-on-year growth in net income. Despite weak revenue growth in the IT services segment, Wipro reported a strong 48.5% year-on-year increase in large deal bookings, which provides a positive outlook for future revenue. The company highlighted that weak discretionary spending had affected growth and projected a 1.5% to 3.5% decline in IT services revenue for Q1 FY26. Plus, the stock market saw Wipro shares increase by 1.5%, closing at ₹247.80 on 16th April 2025, ahead of the earnings announcement.

(source: Mint)

HDFC Life Insurance Company:

HDFC Life Insurance reported strong growth for Q4 FY25, with a 15% year-on-year (YoY) increase in net profit.

Parameter	Figure	% Change
Net Profit (Q4 FY25)	₹475 crore	15% YoY growth
Net Premium Income (Q4)	₹23,842 crore	16% YoY growth
Assets Under Management (AUM)	₹3,36,282 crore	15% YoY growth
Market Share (Individual WRP)	11.10%	70 bps YoY growth

For FY25, the company achieved significant growth driven by a 16% rise in net premium income and an 18% increase in individual APE (Annual Premium Equivalent), reflecting an increase in both the number of policies sold and the average ticket size. HDFC Life also saw a 15% YoY increase in its Assets Under Management (AUM), totaling ₹3,36,282 crore.

(source: Mint)

HDFC Bank:

HDFC Bank posted a positive financial performance for Q4 FY25.

Parameter	Figure	% Change
Net Profit (Q4 FY25)	₹17,616.14 crore	6.7% YoY growth
Net Interest Income (NII)	₹32,065.8 crore	10.28% YoY growth
Net Interest Margin (NIM)	3.54%	–
Gross NPA Ratio	1.33%	–
Dividend (Final)	₹22 per share	–

HDFC Bank also saw improvement in its asset quality, with a reduction in its GNPA ratio to 1.33%. The stock market responded positively, with shares rising over 2% to hit a record high of ₹1,950 per share after the announcement, reflecting investor confidence in the bank’s steady growth and improved asset quality.

(source: Mint)

State Bank Of India:

State Bank of India (SBI) posted a mixed financial performance for Q4 FY25. The bank saw a decline in its net profit, while its operating profit showed growth.

Parameter	Figure	% Change
Net Profit (Q4 FY25)	₹18,642.59 crore	10% YoY decline
Net Interest Income (NII)	₹42,774.55 crore	2.7% YoY growth
Operating Profit	₹31,286 crore	8.83% YoY growth
Loan Loss Provisions	₹3,964 crore	20.35% YoY increase
Dividend (FY25)	₹15.90 per share	–

SBI declared a dividend of ₹15.90 per share for FY25. The bank also saw improvement in its asset quality, with both gross and net NPA ratios declining. Despite downward revisions to its credit growth forecast, SBI announced plans to raise up to ₹25,000 crore in equity capital. The stock market reaction was initially negative, with shares falling sharply. However, SBI’s share price later gained 1.5%, closing at ₹800.05 on 2nd May 2025.

(source: ET)

Reliance Industries:

Reliance Industries reported a solid financial performance for Q4 FY25 with notable growth in key metrics.

Parameter	Figure	% Change
Net Profit	₹22,434 crore	6.1% YoY growth
Revenue from Operations	₹2,64,573 crore	9.9% YoY growth
Digital Services (Jio)	17% YoY growth	–
Retail Segment	15.6% YoY growth	–
Jio Subscriber Base	488.2 million	–
Dividend	₹5.5 per share	–

Reliance’s net profit for Q4 FY25 grew by 6.1% YoY to ₹22,434 crore, with revenue from operations increasing by 9.9% YoY to ₹2,64,573 crore. Jio Platforms saw a 17% revenue increase, and the retail segment grew by 15.6%. Jio’s subscriber base reached 488.2 million. The company declared a ₹5.5 dividend per share. Following these results, the company shares saw a notable increase on 28th April 2025, rising by 3.92% to an intraday high of ₹1,351 on the BSE.

(source: Mint)

Bombay Stock Exchange:

BSE Ltd. reported exceptional financial growth for Q4 FY25.

Parameter	Figure	% Change
Net Profit	₹493 crore	364% YoY growth
Revenue from Operations	₹847 crore	75% YoY growth
EBITDA	₹594 crore	520% YoY growth
Dividend	₹23 per share	–

The company board declared a final dividend of ₹23 per share, including a special dividend to mark its 150th anniversary. Despite a 3.15% decline in share price after the announcement, BSE had recently reached a 52-week high, reflecting its strong performance in the prior months.

Asian Paints:

Asian Paints reported a decline in its financial performance for Q4 FY25, with weak urban demand impacting its overall results.

Parameter	Figure	% Change
Net Profit (PAT)	₹692 crore	-45% YoY
Profit Before Depreciation, Interest, Tax (PBDIT)	₹1,436 crore	-15% YoY
Revenue	₹8329.6 crore	-4.3% YoY
PBDIT Margin	17.20%	-2.2% YoY

The quarterly overall performance was a result of the following sectoral numbers: 

• Decorative Business (India): Volume growth of 1.8%, but revenue declined 5.2%. The segment suffered from weak demand, downtrading, and heightened competition.
• Industrial Business: Saw a 6% revenue growth, driven by strong performance in the General Industrial and Automotive coatings segments.
• Home Décor: Struggled with weak consumer sentiment and low household disposable income. The Beautiful Homes store network synergies couldn’t fully offset the downturn.
• International Business: Revenue dropped 1.5% due to macroeconomic challenges in Africa, though key markets in the Middle East and Asia performed well. On a constant currency basis, international revenues grew by 6%.

Despite the weak demand conditions, the board recommended a final dividend of ₹20.55 per share for FY25, subject to shareholder approval, with 10th June as the record date.

(Source: ET)

Kajaria Tiles:

Kajaria Ceramics’ Q4 FY25 results reflected a challenging quarter, with net profit declining by 59% year-on-year to ₹43 crore, primarily due to losses of ₹30.79 crore from discontinued plywood operations. The company’s revenue from operations rose marginally by 1.1% to ₹1,222 crore, supported by a 5.73% sequential increase. However, EBITDA contracted by 20% to ₹138.4 crore, with margins narrowing to 11.3% from 14.3% a year ago.

Parameter	Figure	% Change
Revenue (Q4 FY25)	₹1,222 crore	1.1% growth
Net Profit (Q4 FY25)	₹43 crore	59% fall
EBITDA	₹138.4 crore	20% fall
EBITDA Margin	11.30%	3% fall
Tile Volumes (FY25)	114.7 MSM	6% growth

During the quarter, Kajaria wound down its UK JV due to high operating costs and scrapped plans for a ₹30 crore tile facility under Kajaria Ultima Pvt. Ltd. The company is proceeding with a ₹15 crore adhesives plant in Rajasthan, slated to begin operations in June 2025. Kajaria also added a new subsidiary, Kajaria Adhesive Pvt. Ltd., expanding its product portfolio and maintaining a total production capacity of 90.5 MSM across India and Nepal.

(Source: CNBC)

In the Q4 FY2025 earnings season, you would have observed mixed performances across sectors. Financial services generally showed strong profit growth and asset quality improvements, while IT companies faced varied outcomes amid global uncertainties. Consumer goods and export-driven sectors reported both gains and challenges, reflecting shifting demand and operational pressures. As the market reacts to these diverse results and broader economic factors, you may want to keep a close eye on evolving trends and potential impacts on key sectors. 

Disclaimer Note: The securities quoted, if any, are for illustration only and are not recommendatory. This article is for education purposes only and shall not be considered as a recommendation or investment advice by Equentis – Research & Ranking. We will not be liable for any losses that may occur. Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. Registration granted by SEBI, membership of BASL & the certification from NISM in no way guarantee the performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.

FAQ

In a development that has raised eyebrows across global financial markets, credit rating agency Moody’s Investors Service has revised India’s GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 6.5% to 6.3%. The downgrade, though modest in numerical terms, signals deeper economic undercurrents—ranging from geopolitical tensions with Pakistan to trade policy uncertainty in the United States.

This article delves into the economic rationale behind the downgrade, the sectors likely to be impacted, and what it spells for India’s investment and market landscape.

What Prompted Moody’s to Cut India’s Forecast?

According to Moody’s, three key risks informed the downgrade (Economic Times):

1. Escalating Indo-Pak Tensions:
   While full-blown conflict is unlikely, increased skirmishes, militant infiltration, and cross-border provocations have led to a risk premium on the region’s stability. This dampens foreign investor sentiment, particularly in long-term infrastructure and manufacturing projects.
   
2. Uncertainty Around US Trade Policy:
   With the US presidential elections looming, markets anticipate a potential shift toward protectionist trade policies, especially if tariffs return under a Trump administration. Given that the US is India’s largest export market, this directly affects India’s goods and services exports.
   
3. Soft Global Economic Activity:
   Continued weakness in China, muted recovery in Europe, and geopolitical flashpoints in the Middle East and Ukraine are dragging global demand down, further constraining India’s external sector performance.
   

Implications for Indian Markets and Businesses

1. Capital Flows May Become Volatile

Moody’s rating revisions are closely watched by foreign institutional investors (FIIs). With India’s equity markets already trading near record valuations, any increase in risk perception can trigger FII outflows, pressuring the rupee and equity indices.

Data Point: In FY24, FIIs invested a net ₹1.3 lakh crore in Indian equities. Even a 10% pullback could shave off ₹13,000 crore in market liquidity.

2. Exporters Face Headwinds

Sectors like textiles, IT services, and pharmaceuticals—heavily reliant on US and EU markets—could face demand contraction. According to Statista, India exported goods worth $78 billion to the US in 2023. A 5% decline would translate into a $3.9 billion hit.

Chart Idea: Bar chart showing India’s top 5 export destinations (2023) with % share—highlighting vulnerability to the US market.

3. Manufacturing and Capex Could Slow

The momentum of ‘Make in India’ depends significantly on policy certainty and geopolitical calm. Moody’s concerns may delay private sector capital expenditure, especially from global firms. Textile and apparel exporters like Arvind Ltd. and Welspun reported 8–10% quarterly declines in overseas orders in Q1 2025, per Fibre2Fashion.

What This Forecast Means in a Broader Context

India remains among the fastest-growing major economies in the world, even at 6.3%. However, the downgraded figure marks a potential deceleration from the momentum seen in 2023 and 2024, when India grew at 7.2% and an estimated 6.9%, respectively.

India’s GDP Growth Trend (FY22–FY25E)

Fiscal Year	GDP Growth (%)	Notes
FY22	8.70%	Post-COVID recovery peak
FY23	7.20%	Robust domestic demand
FY24 (Est.)	6.90%	Services-led expansion
FY25 (Moody’s)	6.30%	Tensions and global slowdown

(Sources: Ministry of Statistics, Moody’s, World Bank)

Sectoral Impact: Winners and Losers

The downgrade to 6.3% GDP growth may appear numerically minor, but it sends significant signals across sectoral dynamics, especially in capital-intensive and globally linked industries.

🔻 Vulnerable Sectors

1. Export-Heavy Sectors (Textiles, IT, Auto Components)

According to Ministry of Commerce data, India’s merchandise exports contracted 3% in FY24. With heightened Indo-Pak tensions and uncertainty over US trade policy, India’s major exporters now face dual risks—logistical disruptions due to geopolitical tensions and potential tariff barriers in their primary markets.

• Textiles: Already battling competition from Bangladesh and Vietnam, Indian textile exporters face elevated freight costs and possible buyer diversification away from the South Asia region. For instance, apparel exports dipped by 11.7% YoY in Q1 2025.
  
• IT Services: With over 60% of revenues coming from the US, Indian IT firms are vulnerable to any US policy shifts under a new administration.
  
• Auto Components: The US is India’s second-largest auto parts export destination. Moody’s downgrade and trade war fears may delay order flows and impact margins.
  

2. Capital Goods and Infrastructure

Private sector capex recovery has been tentative. With rating downgrades influencing cost of capital, this sector could see a slowdown in project finalization and tendering activity.

RBI’s April 2025 bulletin showed that new investment proposals from the private sector dropped 9.2% YoY in Q4 FY24, reflecting early signs of caution.

3. Financial Markets

Equity markets, particularly mid- and small-cap segments, remain highly sensitive to FII flows. Any moderation in the growth outlook typically leads to defensive repositioning by global investors.

• Banking Stocks: Though resilient on the surface, banking is indirectly affected via slower credit demand from corporates.
  
• NBFCs: Face risk of asset-liability mismatches if liquidity conditions tighten due to FII outflows or currency depreciation.
  

Resilient or Counter-Cyclical Sectors

1. Domestic Consumption (FMCG, Retail, Consumer Durables)

India’s consumption resilience—driven by a young demographic and rising disposable income—provides a safety net.

• Data Point: Rural demand has shown signs of a comeback after two weak years. FMCG rural volume growth hit 6.5% YoY in the March 2025 quarter (source: NielsenIQ).
  
• Retail and durables may benefit from festival demand, government transfers, and stable service employment.
  

2. Banking & Financial Services

Despite volatility, PSUs and private banks remain well-capitalized. Credit demand from individuals and SMEs—especially in Tier II/III cities—continues to hold up.

According to RBI’s April data, personal loans grew 18.7% YoY in FY24, led by housing and vehicle segments.

3. Energy & Infrastructure

Government-led capex remains robust, insulating the sector from private capex volatility.

• Union Budget 2025 raised infrastructure capex by 16.2% YoY, targeting green energy corridors, national highways, and metro projects.
  
• Renewable energy projects (solar/wind) under PLI schemes continue to attract domestic and foreign investment, albeit cautiously.
  

The Way Forward: 

India’s medium-term growth potential remains intact. However, short-term risks call for strategic policy actions across diplomacy, diversification, and domestic fortification.

1. Reinvigorate Regional Diplomacy

The geopolitical flashpoint with Pakistan raises India’s risk premium in global investment decisions. Reviving backchannel diplomacy, cross-border trade arrangements (mainly for Punjab and Sindh border trade), and confidence-building military measures could help tone down market fears.

Post-Kargil normalization in 2001–03 helped Indian markets attract robust FDI, particularly in telecom and financial services.

2. Expand Trade Diversification

India must reduce its over-reliance on the US and EU. ASEAN, Africa, and Latin America offer untapped potential:

• Finalizing FTAs with the EU and UK can unlock textile, auto, and service trade growth.
  
• The India-Mercosur agreement needs expansion beyond basic agri-products to include pharma and IT services.

India’s trade with Africa stood at $98 billion in FY24. A 10% annual growth rate could add nearly $50 billion by 2030.

3. Bolster Domestic Manufacturing and Capex

Moody’s concerns highlight the importance of inward-looking resilience:

• Expand PLI schemes to new sectors like semiconductors, green hydrogen, and EV components.
• Provide faster clearances and stable tax regimes to accelerate FDI in manufacturing.
• Encourage MSME access to credit by digitizing land records and simplifying collateral mechanisms.
  

SIDBI data shows that only 17% of MSMEs access formal credit, indicating latent investment capacity.

4. Maintain Fiscal and Policy Credibility

While India’s fiscal deficit has narrowed from 6.4% in FY22 to 5.8% in FY24, any external shock will test the government’s ability to maintain its current course.

• Avoid populist spending ahead of elections that could spook bond markets.
• Ensure inflation targeting remains a core RBI mandate, especially with rising crude oil prices in Q2 2025. 
• Enhance transparency in GDP, employment, and inflation data to maintain investor trust.
  

5. Strengthen Financial Market Depth

Moody’s downgrade also reflects a need to make Indian financial markets more resilient to external shocks.

• Encourage domestic institutional participation (insurance, pension funds) to counterbalance volatile FII flows.
  
• Deepen corporate bond markets, which still account for less than 20% of total credit compared to 70% in the US.
  

Is This a Cause for Alarm? Not Yet, but Caution is Warranted

Moody’s has not altered India’s sovereign rating, which remains at ‘Baa3’ with a stable outlook. This means the long-term fundamentals are not in question, but near-term caution is advised.

Economists have echoed that while India is not insulated from global shocks, its domestic drivers—such as strong tax collections, robust forex reserves ($645 billion as of April 2025), and infrastructure-led government spending—offer buffers.

“India still offers a compelling growth story but may need to recalibrate expectations in the face of geopolitical friction,” said a policy note from Outlook Business.

Conclusion

Moody’s 20-basis point cut to India’s GDP growth forecast 2025 may appear minor at first glance, but it reflects the complex interplay of domestic stability and external volatility. Indo-Pak tensions and uncertainty over US trade policy are clouding the growth horizon, just as India is poised to become the world’s third-largest economy by 2027. While fundamentals remain strong, navigating these headwinds with strategic clarity is critical for sustaining investor confidence and economic momentum.

Disclaimer Note: The securities quoted, if any, are for illustration only and are not recommendatory. This article is for education purposes only and shall not be considered as a recommendation or investment advice by Equentis – Research & Ranking. We will not be liable for any losses that may occur. Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. Registration granted by SEBI, membership of BASL & the certification from NISM in no way guarantee the performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.

Alphabet Inc., the parent of Google, saw its stock tumble by more than 7% on Wednesday, erasing around $150 billion in market value. The sharp drop came after reports revealed that Apple is considering integrating artificial intelligence-powered search options into its Safari browser — a move that could fundamentally shift the balance in the search engine market and hit Google where it hurts most: its dominance on Apple devices.

What Triggered the Stock Drop?

The sell-off was sparked by revelations during an ongoing antitrust trial. Apple’s senior vice president of services, Eddy Cue, testified that the company is “actively looking at” reshaping its Safari browser with new AI-powered search options. Cue’s statement specifically pointed out a trend where users are increasingly turning to AI tools for finding information, leading to the first recorded decline in Safari-based searches last month.

Alphabet shares responded swiftly, closing the day 7.51% lower at $152.80. This decline wiped out roughly $150 billion from Alphabet’s market capitalization — one of its steepest single-day losses in recent history.

Why This Matters for Google

The timing and implications of Cue’s statement couldn’t be more critical for Google. For years, Google has paid Apple billions annually — reportedly around $20 billion in 2022 alone — to remain the default search engine on Safari. This arrangement contributes significantly to Google’s ad revenues, with about 36% of its search ad revenue estimated to come from Safari users.

If Apple decides to offer or promote AI-powered alternatives from providers like Perplexity, OpenAI, or Anthropic, Google’s dominance in mobile search, especially on iPhones, could be at risk.

In a market that’s becoming more AI-first by the day, this shift in search behavior represents not just competition, but a foundational challenge to Google’s core business.

Google Responds, but Questions Remain

In response to the headlines and investor concerns, Google maintained that its search ecosystem remains strong. “People are seeing that Google Search is more useful for more of their queries — and they’re accessing it for new things and in new ways,” the company stated, highlighting its voice and visual search innovations as evidence of ongoing growth.

However, there’s a critical catch — it remains unclear whether Eddy Cue’s comments about declining Safari searches were based on comparable metrics or an internal trend that could be interpreted in multiple ways. The ambiguity has only fueled further speculation. Source: The Mint

Apple’s Strategy: Keep Options Open

Cue’s testimony also emphasized Apple’s intent to keep its options open. The company is exploring partnerships with various AI players, suggesting it’s not tied to any one solution and may be positioning itself to shift search behavior across its platforms based on performance, innovation, and possibly regulatory developments.

Importantly, Apple has not announced any formal partnerships or immediately changed Safari’s default search setup. But the mere suggestion that Google’s place as the default could be challenged was enough to send Alphabet’s stock into a tailspin.

Alphabet’s Performance: A Mixed Picture

Wednesday’s decline was dramatic, but it’s not the whole story. Here’s a breakdown of Alphabet’s stock performance:

• Past 1 Day: Down 7.51%
• Past 1 Month: Up 2.4%
• Past 6 Months: Down 16%
• Year-to-Date (YTD): Down 20%
• 1-Year Performance: Down 12%
• 5-Year Performance: Up 120%

While long-term returns remain strong, the recent downward trend highlights growing investor anxiety, particularly as AI reshapes the competitive dynamics in tech.

Regulatory Shadows Looming

The timing of this news also overlaps with the broader legal scrutiny Google faces. The U.S. Department of Justice has proposed several remedies in ongoing antitrust lawsuits, including banning payments made by Google to secure default status in browsers like Safari.

If enacted, such a ban could strike at the heart of Google’s iOS search strategy, potentially unraveling one of the most lucrative deals in digital advertising history.

With the regulatory environment heating up, Apple’s decision to explore alternatives could be as much about reducing its own antitrust exposure as it is about enhancing user experience with AI tools.

What Comes Next?

This episode highlights the growing tension between big tech players as they race to define the future of search in the age of AI. Apple’s quiet but strategic push into AI search suggests a world where Google no longer dominates by default — especially on devices it doesn’t control.

Meanwhile, Google must not only compete technologically but also navigate a shifting regulatory and business landscape where its default status is no longer guaranteed. 

Source: The Mint

• Final Word

Alphabet’s $150 billion wipeout is a reminder of just how sensitive the market has become to AI developments — especially when they involve heavyweight players like Apple. As AI reshapes how people access and consume information, the old search engine model is being challenged from multiple angles. And for investors and industry watchers alike, all eyes are now on what Apple does next.

Disclaimer Note: The securities quoted, if any, are for illustration only and are not recommendatory. This article is for education purposes only and shall not be considered as a recommendation or investment advice by Equentis – Research & Ranking. We will not be liable for any losses that may occur. Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. Registration granted by SEBI, membership of BASL & the certification from NISM in no way guarantee the performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.

FAQ

MRF raced ahead in the stock market on 7 May, rolling out a strong Q4 performance that increased its shares by 4%. The share price of one of India’s most expensive stocks by value touched a high of ₹1,41,500 on the NSE, after opening at ₹1,31,500, reflecting a gain of over ₹10,000 per share in just one day. It finally closed at ₹1,40,420, a ₹5,430 surge over the previous closing. In the past month, the stock has climbed nearly 28%, adding more than ₹30,000 per share to its value. The spike was witnessed after the tyre giant reported a 31% year-on-year jump in net profit for the March 31, 2025, quarter. 

The company reported consolidated revenue of ₹6,944 crore, an increase from ₹6,316 crore in the same period last year. Rising demand in both OEM and replacement tyre markets supported this growth. This solid growth in revenue and profit for the country’s iconic tire brand reflects improved demand, better cost control, and a resilient market outlook. 

Source: Economic Times, Money Control

Profit Jumps as Operational Strength Shines

MRF’s net profit rose to ₹493 crore in Q4, showing a 33% increase compared to ₹370 crore a year ago. Better cost control, increased volumes, and improved product mix across categories drove this sharp growth. Its EBITDA also rose by 18% to ₹1,043 crore in the March quarter. The EBITDA margin improved to 15%, reflecting stronger operating efficiency.

The company announced a final dividend of ₹229 per equity share, equalling 2290% on the face value of Rs 10. Including previous payouts, the total dividend for FY25 stood at ₹369 per share, continuing MRF’s long-standing tradition of rewarding its shareholders. The company had earlier declared and paid two interim dividends of ₹3 per share each for the March 31, 2025, financial year. With the final dividend, the total payout for the year amounts to ₹235 per share.

Despite the sizable dividend payout, MRF’s dividend yield stays relatively low at just 0.15%, considering its current stock price of approximately ₹1,40,000. Source: Business Today, Economic Times

However, although Q4 numbers were robust, the full-year net profit came in at ₹1,939 crore, slightly lower than last year’s ₹2,025 crore. The dip reflects earlier pressure from high raw material costs and a mixed global demand environment. Source: Business Standard

Reasons for MRF’s Solid Performance

Multiple strategic and operational factors drive the performance in MRF’s Q4 FY25 results. Here’s a breakdown of the key contributors to this success:

1. Tyre Demand on the Rise as Auto Sector Recovers

The broader tyre industry is gaining momentum, thanks to a revival in automobile sales and increased infrastructure activity. MRF’s substantial brand equity and vast distribution network helped it capitalise on this demand.

2. Efficiency Measures Drive Margin Growth

MRF’s management attributed the improved margins to stringent cost control and enhanced internal efficiencies. The softening of raw material prices further supported this margin expansion.

3. Steady Gains from Global Footprint

Despite global market uncertainties, MRF’s presence in key export regions provided stability. The company is cautiously expanding its international operations to maintain balance and mitigate risks.

4. Product Diversification and New Launches

The introduction of new stock-keeping units (SKUs) across various product categories, including passenger, motorcycle, truck, light commercial vehicle (LCV), and off-the-road (OTR) tyres, contributed to the company’s growth momentum during the year.

5. Strategic Price Adjustments

MRF implemented price hikes during the year to counteract rising input costs. These strategic adjustments helped offset increased raw material expenses and rupee depreciation.

6. Strong Performance Across Market Segments

The company’s growth was driven by all three key market segments: replacement, institutional, and export. This diversified performance underscores MRF’s robust market presence and adaptability.

The Road Ahead: Cautious Optimism

MRF’s strong Q4 performance has created optimism, but the company still faces challenges. The tyre industry is expected to grow further, supported by rising vehicle sales, better roads, and higher replacement demand. These trends should help MRF continue on a steady path.

However, there are areas to watch out for. Competition is increasing, and low-cost tyre imports could affect market share. Fluctuating raw material prices—especially rubber and oil-based products—may also impact profit margins. On the global front, export demand remains uncertain, even though MRF is slowly expanding its presence overseas.

Despite these factors, MRF’s ability to manage costs, launch new products, and maintain strong dealer relationships puts it in a good position. Its trusted brand name and stable performance make it a reliable player in the long run.

Conclusion

MRF ended FY25 on a high note, backed by a rise in revenue, profit, and margins, which shows that the company has used its strengths well during tough times. While some risks remain, MRF’s focus on efficiency, steady demand, and shareholder value gives it a strong base for future growth.

Disclaimer Note: The securities quoted, if any, are for illustration only and are not recommendatory. This article is for education purposes only and shall not be considered as a recommendation or investment advice by Equentis – Research & Ranking. We will not be liable for any losses that may occur. Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. Registration granted by SEBI, membership of BASL & the certification from NISM in no way guarantee the performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.