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On April 2, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump declared “Liberation Day,” unveiling a series of tariffs aimed at addressing perceived trade imbalances. This initiative introduces a 10% baseline tariff on imports from all countries, with higher reciprocal tariffs targeting specific nations. India faces a 26% tariff on its exports to the U.S., a measure intended to counterbalance India’s 52% tariff on U.S. goods. These tariffs are set to take effect on April 5, 2025. The announcement has prompted varied reactions globally, with concerns about potential economic repercussions and shifts in international trade dynamics. Let’s explore in detail. 

Understanding the Tariffs

The newly announced tariffs include a baseline 10% levy on all U.S. imports, with higher rates for specific countries based on existing trade imbalances. India faces a 26% tariff, reflecting the U.S. administration’s view of India’s 52% cumulative tariff on U.S. goods. Other affected countries include China (34%), Vietnam (46%), Japan (24%), and the European Union (20%).

India-U.S. Trade Overview

The United States is India’s largest export market, making this tariff policy particularly impactful. The India-U.S. trade relationship has grown steadily over the years, with bilateral trade reaching approximately $118.2 billion in FY24. India’s exports to the U.S. totaled $77.5 billion, while U.S. exports to India stood at $40.7 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $36.8 billion in favor of India.
Source: Livemint

Key Export Sectors from India to the U.S.:

• Pharmaceuticals: $10.89 billion (14% of total exports)
• Gems and Jewelry: $10.19 billion (13.2%)
• Petroleum Products: $2.88 billion (3.7%)
• Telecom Instruments: $2.2 billion (2.8%)
• Ready-made Garments: $1.8 billion (2.3%)
• Auto Components: $1.4 billion (1.8%)
• Iron and Steel Products: $1.2 billion (1.6%)

While these sectors form the backbone of India’s export market to the U.S., the new tariffs could significantly impact competitiveness, especially in industries like gems and jewelry, petroleum, and electronics, which already face price-sensitive demand.

U.S. Exports to India:

• Crude Oil and LNG: $11.6 billion (28.5% of total U.S. exports to India)
• Aircraft and Aerospace Equipment: $4.9 billion (12.0%)
• Precious Metals (Gold & Silver): $4.2 billion (10.3%)
• Electrical Machinery: $3.7 billion (9.1%)
• Medical and Optical Instruments: $2.1 billion (5.2%)

The U.S. is also a major supplier of high-tech goods to India, particularly in the defense and energy sectors. The introduction of reciprocal tariffs could lead to price hikes and adjustments in procurement strategies for both countries.
Source: US Import Data

Immediate Market Reactions

Following the tariff announcement, Indian stock markets experienced a downturn. The benchmark Nifty 50 index opened lower, reflecting investor concerns. However, the pharmaceutical sector showed resilience, with stocks rising by 4% due to the exemption of pharmaceutical products from the new tariffs. Companies like Dr. Reddy’s and Gland Pharma saw notable gains.

How Global Markets Reacted

Global markets experienced significant volatility following Trump’s tariff announcement:

• U.S. Markets: Nasdaq futures tumbled 3.3%, with tech stocks hit hard. In after-hours trading, around $760 billion was wiped from the market value of the “Magnificent Seven” tech giants. Apple, which manufactures iPhones in China, fell nearly 7%.
  
• European Markets: The FTSE futures fell 1.6%, while broader European futures declined by nearly 2%.
  
• Asian Markets:
  
  • Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 2.8%, reaching an eight-month low.
    
  • MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell over 1%.
    
  • China’s CSI300 blue-chip index dropped 0.24%, and the Shanghai Composite Index declined 0.1%.
    
  • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slid 1.6%.
    
  • South Korea’s Kospi fell 2%, while Vietnam’s ETF lost more than 8% in after-hours trading.
    
  • Australian markets declined by 2%.
    
• Gold and Oil:
  
  • Gold surged to a record high above $3,160 per ounce as investors sought safety.
    
  • Oil prices slumped over 2%, with Brent crude futures falling to $73.24 per barrel.
    
    Source: Money Control

Sectoral Impacts in India

1. Electronics and Electrical Machinery: This sector, particularly smartphone exports, is vulnerable. Over 50% of India’s electronics exports to the U.S. consist of Apple iPhones assembled in India. Increased duties could make these devices more expensive for U.S. consumers, potentially affecting demand.
   
2. Gems and Jewelry: Accounting for 11.5% of India’s exports to the U.S., this sector may face reduced competitiveness due to higher tariffs, leading to potential declines in export volumes.
   
3. Pharmaceuticals: With an 11% share in exports to the U.S., the exemption from tariffs provides relief, allowing continued market access without additional cost burdens.
   
4. Machinery for Nuclear Reactors: Representing 8.1% of exports, this sector could experience decreased demand due to increased costs for U.S. buyers.
   
5. Refined Petroleum Products: Comprising 5.5% of exports, higher tariffs may reduce competitiveness in the U.S. market, affecting export revenues.
   Source: Business Standard

Broader Economic Implications

• Currency Fluctuations: The Indian rupee is expected to weaken, with projections indicating an opening value of 85.70-85.75 per U.S. dollar, compared to 85.4975 in the prior session. This depreciation reflects broader market apprehensions.
  
• Foreign Investment: Foreign investors sold a net $740.3 million of Indian shares on April 1, signaling reduced confidence amid rising global trade tensions.
  
• Global Trade Dynamics: The tariffs contribute to escalating trade tensions, potentially disrupting global supply chains and prompting countries to seek alternative markets or renegotiate trade agreements.
  

Government Response and Negotiations

India’s commerce ministry is analyzing the impact of the 26% tariffs and views the situation as a mixed bag rather than a setback. Negotiations are underway for a trade agreement with the U.S., aiming for a deal by fall 2025.
Source: Economic Times

Conclusion

The 26% reciprocal tariff imposed by the U.S. on Indian imports presents challenges across various sectors, with immediate market reactions highlighting investor concerns. While certain industries like pharmaceuticals may find relief through exemptions, others face increased costs and potential reductions in export volumes. The broader economic implications underscore the importance of ongoing negotiations and strategic adjustments to navigate this evolving trade landscape. 

Disclaimer Note: The securities quoted, if any, are for illustration only and are not recommendatory. This article is for education purposes only and shall not be considered as a recommendation or investment advice by Equentis – Research & Ranking. We will not be liable for any losses that may occur. Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. Registration granted by SEBI, membership of BASL & the certification from NISM in no way guarantee the performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.

The Immediate Market Response

In a dramatic turn of events, global markets tumbled as U.S. President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on multiple foreign goods, triggering fears of escalating trade wars and economic stagnation. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures fell sharply, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunging over 1,000 points in a single trading session. Major U.S. tech giants such as Apple, Amazon, and Nvidia saw a significant dip in their stock values due to their exposure to international supply chains, which are now at risk of higher costs and trade restrictions (Business Insider).

Conversely, gold surged to an all-time high, reaching $3,167.57 per ounce—a 19% increase year-to-date. Investors flocked to the safe-haven asset amid heightened uncertainty, underscoring the metal’s historical role as a shield against financial volatility (Reuters).

Why Is Gold Surging?

Gold’s resurgence as a favored asset isn’t just a knee-jerk reaction to trade tariffs—it’s an economic signal. Historically, gold has been a refuge for investors during financial distress, and the current climate is no exception. Several factors are driving the recent surge:

1. Stagflation Fears: Analysts warn that slowing economic growth and rising inflation—reminiscent of the 1970s stagflation—could erode actual returns on stocks and bonds, making gold an attractive alternative (MarketWatch).
2. Weakening Dollar: The dollar index slipped following Trump’s tariff announcements, making gold cheaper for foreign investors and increasing demand. Historically, gold has an inverse relationship with the U.S. dollar, benefiting when the greenback weakens.
3. Central Bank Accumulation: Several central banks, including China, India, and Russia, have significantly increased their gold reserves to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar. In 2023 alone, central banks purchased over 1,100 metric tons of gold—the highest annual demand in history, according to the World Gold Council (World Gold Council). 
4. Inflation Hedge: As tariffs increase the cost of imported goods, they create inflationary pressures. Higher prices reduce the purchasing power of fiat currencies, making gold a more attractive store of value.
5. Flight from Equities: With stock markets in turmoil and bond yields offering little respite due to central banks’ cautious monetary policies, gold presents a relatively stable alternative.
6. Currency Weakness: A significant depreciation in major currencies, particularly the Chinese yuan and the euro, has prompted investors to shift toward gold to preserve capital.
7. Geopolitical Uncertainty: Global trade conflicts, wars, and political instability in key economies have made gold an even more compelling asset.

World Gold Council’s Perspective

The World Gold Council (WGC), a leading authority on gold markets, has emphasized the growing demand for gold among central banks and investors. WGC CEO David Tait recently stated that “every indicator suggests that gold prices will continue to rise, given the increasing demand from institutional and retail investors.”

The Council highlights three significant trends supporting the gold rally:

• De-Dollarization Efforts: Many countries are moving away from U.S. dollar reserves due to geopolitical tensions and economic sanctions, favoring gold as a more stable asset.
• ETFs and Institutional Buying: Gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen a resurgence in inflows, particularly in European and Asian markets.
• Retail Demand in Emerging Markets: India and China, the world’s largest gold consumers, continue to drive demand due to cultural, economic, and investment reasons. 

David Tait, CEO of the World Gold Council, recently stated, “Gold’s resilience and appeal as a hedge against economic shocks make it a crucial part of any long-term investment strategy.”

India’s Gold Holdings and Its Economic Impact 

India’s relationship with gold is deeply entrenched in cultural and economic traditions. Indian households collectively hold approximately 25,000 tonnes of gold, making it one of the largest private reserves in the world. But beyond jewelry and cultural significance, gold plays a vital economic role:

1. Wealth Preservation: In rural India, where banking infrastructure remains limited, gold is a financial security net.
2. Investment Alternative: Indian investors often turn to gold during economic instability, driving demand for gold bars and sovereign gold bonds.
3. Trade Deficit Concerns: India imports nearly all of its gold, which can strain the country’s trade balance when global prices surge. The government has attempted to curb excessive imports through higher import duties and schemes like gold monetization programs.
4. Cultural Affinity: Gold is deeply ingrained in Indian traditions, particularly in weddings and festivals, making it a preferred asset regardless of economic conditions.
5. Economic Security: With limited access to formal financial instruments, many rural and semi-urban households view gold as their primary source of wealth preservation.

The Global Economic Outlook

The current financial landscape suggests continued volatility, with trade wars, inflation fears, and geopolitical risks dictating market movements. As a result, gold is expected to maintain its upward trajectory, with analysts predicting prices could reach $3,500 per ounce by the end of the year if economic uncertainties persist. 

Conclusion

President Trump’s tariff announcements have once again underscored the fragility of global financial markets. While equities stumble under economic uncertainty, gold has reaffirmed its status as a resilient safe-haven asset. With central banks and investors doubling down on gold, its role in wealth preservation is stronger than ever. Understanding these dynamics will be crucial for investors looking to safeguard their portfolios as the world navigates turbulent economic waters.

Disclaimer Note: The securities quoted, if any, are for illustration only and are not recommendatory. This article is for education purposes only and shall not be considered as a recommendation or investment advice by Equentis – Research & Ranking. We will not be liable for any losses that may occur. Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. Registration granted by SEBI, membership of BASL & the certification from NISM in no way guarantee the performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.

On Tuesday, April 1, 2025, India’s stock markets experienced their most significant opening-day decline for a financial year in five years. The NSE Nifty dropped by 353.65 points (1.5%) to close at 23,165.70, while the BSE Sensex fell by 1,390.41 points (1.8%), ending at 76,024.51. Source: Economic Times

Market Volatility and Investor Sentiment

The Nifty’s Volatility Index (VIX), often termed the ‘fear indicator,’ surged 8.4% to nearly 13.78 on Tuesday. This increase suggests heightened caution among traders and indicates the market may experience further fluctuations in the coming days. Source: Economic Times

Key Reasons for Market Volatility

Several factors contributed to this downturn:

• Anticipation of U.S. Tariffs: Investors were on edge due to the expected implementation of new U.S. tariffs on April 2. These tariffs aimed to impose a uniform global import duty, raising concerns about potential impacts on global trade and the Indian economy. 

• Foreign Investors Pull Out Amid Tariff Concerns: On Tuesday, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) offloaded stocks worth a net ₹5,902 crore. This sharp sell-off follows a brief period of aggressive buying in March when FPIs made net purchases of ₹1,629 crore. Before that, overseas investors had been net sellers for five consecutive months. Meanwhile, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) stepped in as buyers, purchasing stocks worth ₹4,323 crore.

• Sector-Specific Declines: Large-cap stocks, particularly in the IT, pharmaceuticals, and automobile sectors, faced significant selling pressure. For instance, the Nifty IT index declined by 2.45%, reflecting concerns over the potential impact of U.S. tariffs on these export-driven industries. ​ Source: Economic Times/Thehindu 

Large Caps Under Pressure

The sell-off was particularly harsh on large-cap stocks, especially in the IT, pharmaceuticals, and automobile sectors. These industries are expected to remain under pressure in the coming days as the U.S. implements its new tariff regime, which will impose a uniform global import duty on all countries without exceptions.

Sectors that suffered the most included:

• Real Estate, IT, Consumer Durables, and Financial Services: Nifty indices for these sectors fell 2-3%.
• Pharmaceuticals: Concerns over potential price impacts due to tariffs led to declines in pharma stocks. However, analysts believe Indian pharmaceutical firms still hold a competitive pricing advantage.

Source: Economic Times

Midcaps and Small Caps Show Resilience

Despite the market slump, the broader market remained resilient. Of 4,195 stocks traded on the BSE, 2,716 advanced while 1,343 declined, indicating that investors may still explore opportunities in smaller stocks. However, midcaps and small caps did feel some impact.

• Nifty Midcap 150 fell 1%.
• Nifty Small-cap 250 declined 0.5%.

Historically, midcaps and small caps experience less volatility at the beginning of a financial year due to lower foreign investment exposure.  Source: Economic Times

A Mixed Picture for Global Markets

Interestingly, global markets showed signs of resilience. While Indian markets remained closed on Monday due to Eid, other Asian markets rebounded on Tuesday.

• China and Hong Kong gained 0.4% each.
• South Korea rose by 1.6%, and Taiwan surged by 2.8%.
• Japan remained flat, while the pan-European Stoxx 600 index saw a 1% rise by market close. Source: Economic Times

What Lies Ahead?

The market’s short-term direction depends on Wednesday’s tariff announcement. According to market experts, stocks could recover if the tariffs are milder than expected, especially in export-driven sectors like pharma and IT. However, stricter tariffs may lead to further declines. 

With rising global uncertainties, market participants remain cautious about near-term movements. While some believe select sectors like IT, FMCG, and PSU banks may offer long-term opportunities, investors are advised to stay mindful, given the unpredictable global environment. As tariff-related developments unfold, the market’s reaction will be closely watched in the coming days.

Disclaimer Note: The securities quoted, if any, are for illustration only and are not recommendatory. This article is for education purposes only and shall not be considered as a recommendation or investment advice by Equentis – Research & Ranking. We will not be liable for any losses that may occur. Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. Registration granted by SEBI, membership of BASL & the certification from NISM in no way guarantee the performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.

Vodafone Idea Ltd. (VI) witnessed a sharp rally in its stock price on April 1, 2025, surging over 20 percent following the company’s announcement regarding the government’s increased stake. The Government of India will now hold 48.99 percent of the telecom company’s shares, up from 22.6 percent, after converting outstanding spectrum dues worth Rs 36,950 crore into equity. Source: Moneycontrol

This decision also positively impacted Indus Towers’ shares, which saw a 7 percent rise. Vodafone Idea will issue 3,695 crore equity shares at Rs 10 per share as part of the conversion, even though the stock’s last closing price was Rs 6.8 per share.

Market Reaction and Share Performance

The market responded positively to the news, with Vodafone Idea shares surging over 20% to hit a high of ₹8.36 on the NSE. However, the stock remains below its FPO price of ₹11 and is down over 60% from its 2024 peak of ₹19.18.

During its FPO last year, Vodafone Idea had 36.18 lakh retail shareholders—those with an authorized share capital of up to ₹2 lakh—holding a 3.7% stake in the company as of March 2024. By year-end, this number had risen to 58.34 lakh shareholders, increasing their stake to 7.63%. Source: CNBCTV18

With the conversion of equity, the government became the largest shareholder in Vodafone Idea. Despite this, the company’s promoters will continue to have operational control, as clarified in a stock exchange filing. The pricing of the newly issued shares was determined based on the volume-weighted average price over the last 90 trading days or the preceding 10 days before the relevant date (February 26, 2025), in accordance with the Companies Act, 2013. Source: Moneycontrol

Government Approval and Past Conversions

The Ministry of Communications issued an official order approving the conversion on March 29, 2025. Vodafone Idea received this confirmation on March 30, aligning with the reforms introduced in the September 2021 Telecom Reforms Package.

This is not the first time Vodafone Idea has undergone such a conversion. In 2023, the government converted Rs 16,133 crore of the company’s debt into equity at Rs 10 per share. Source: Moneycontrol/CNBCTV18

Vodafone Idea’s Financial Struggles Continue

Despite the government stepping in, Vodafone Idea remains in a precarious financial position. Over the past year, the company’s stock has lost more than 50% of its value. This decline reflects growing investor concerns about telecom operators’ ability to compete with industry giants Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel.

The latest government-backed equity conversion may offer temporary relief, but Vodafone Idea will still need to secure additional investments to expand its operations, enhance its network, and retain subscribers. Analysts believe that sustaining business operations, in the long run, will remain a challenge without significant capital infusion.

Looking Ahead

India’s telecom market is highly competitive, with major players fighting for dominance. Vodafone Idea’s future depends on tackling its financial issues and expanding its network. The government’s support gives temporary relief, but the company must focus on raising funds, improving service, and keeping customers.

While analysts have mixed views on the stock, there is some optimism due to government backing. However, the company’s long-term success will rely on attracting new investments and strengthening its finances.

Disclaimer Note: The securities quoted, if any, are for illustration only and are not recommendatory. This article is for education purposes only and shall not be considered as a recommendation or investment advice by Equentis – Research & Ranking. We will not be liable for any losses that may occur. Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. Registration granted by SEBI, membership of BASL & the certification from NISM in no way guarantee the performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.

FAQs

The Indian stock market in FY25 was characterized by significant fluctuations driven by domestic and global factors. The BSE Sensex rose by 5.1%, while the NSE Nifty 50 gained 5.34%. A substantial portion of these gains occurred in March 2025, when the Nifty 50 surged 6.3%, marking its best monthly performance in 15 months.

Despite an overall positive performance, the year saw phases of strong rallies followed by sharp corrections, making it a challenging landscape for investors. The initial part of the fiscal year was bullish, but concerns over global economic conditions, high valuations, and sectoral rotations contributed to volatility in the latter half.

Nifty 50: A Tale of Two Halves

FY25 can be divided into two distinct halves:

• April to September 2024: The market exhibited strong momentum, with the Nifty 50 climbing 16% to a peak of 26,277.35. Optimism surrounding domestic economic recovery, policy reforms, and strong corporate earnings contributed to the rally.
• October 2024 to March 2025: This period saw a 9% decline, erasing some earlier gains. Concerns over global interest rate trends, geopolitical tensions, and foreign fund outflows led to heightened market uncertainty.

Sectoral Performance

• Financial Services: Nifty Financial Services led the pack with an impressive 19% surge, benefiting from strong credit growth, favorable interest rate expectations, and renewed foreign investor interest.
• Metals and Pharma: Both sectors posted double-digit gains of 10-11%, driven by strong demand and robust earnings.
• Midcap and Small Cap Stocks: The midcap index outperformed the Nifty 50 with a 7.48% increase, while small caps also registered gains—however, concerns over stretched valuations led to periodic corrections.
• PSU Banks, Energy, and Media: These sectors were the biggest laggards, posting 11-18% losses, weighed down by weaker earnings and sector-specific challenges. Source: Money Control

Stock-Specific Performance

• Gainers: 27 Nifty constituents ended the year in positive territory, with 16 rising over 10%.
• Losers: Nestlé, Bajaj Auto, and Adani Ports were the biggest losers, each declining more than 10%.
• Top Performers: Mazagon Dock and BSE stood out with 2x returns, delivering exceptional gains for investors.
• Midcap Leaders: Paytm, Vedanta, Hindustan Zinc, and Firstsource Solutions ranked among the top gainers in the midcap segment.

Performance in the Last Week of March

The final week of FY25 saw Indian equity markets posting gains for the second consecutive week, driven by strength in IT and financial stocks.

• Nifty and Sensex: Both indices rose by 1% during the week, reflecting steady investor confidence.
• Nifty IT: Outperformed with a 2% surge, buoyed by optimism over global tech demand.
• Nifty Bank Also gained nearly 2%, highlighting strong momentum in the financial sector.
• Midcaps: Lagged, with the midcap index ending flat for the week.
• Stock Participation: Among individual stocks, 29 Nifty constituents closed in the green, contributing to the market’s steady uptrend.

Despite the positive momentum during the week, the final trading session of FY25 (March 28) ended on a weaker note. Benchmark indices Nifty and Sensex closed lower as IT and auto stocks declined for the second straight session.

• Broader Market Weakness: The Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 indices slipped 0.3% and 0.15%, respectively, reflecting caution among investors.
• Sectoral Performance:
  • Gainer: Nifty FMCG was the lone gainer on March 28, rising 0.6%.
  • Banking Stocks: Nifty Bank and PSU Bank edged higher during the session but pared gains to close marginally lower by up to 0.5%.
  • Underperformers: Nifty IT, Auto, and Pharma all slipped around 1% each, dragged down by weak sentiment over Trump’s proposed tariffs. Source: Money Control

Investor Behavior: FIIs and DIIs

• Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs): Despite a net outflow of $15.57 billion during the fiscal year, FIIs turned net buyers in March, injecting $2.65 billion in the last five sessions. On March 28 alone, they were net buyers of over Rs 11,000 crore, bringing net FII flows for the month to a positive Rs 6,300 crore.
• Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs): Provided consistent support throughout the year, helping stabilize markets during periods of volatility.

Factors Influencing Market Volatility

Several elements contributed to the market’s fluctuations:

• Earnings Performance: Weaker-than-expected corporate earnings dampened investor sentiment in key sectors.
• Global Economic Trends: Concerns over U.S. tariffs, geopolitical risks, and fluctuating commodity prices shaped market movements.
• Inflation and Interest Rates: While inflation showed signs of cooling, monetary policy remained a key factor influencing market sentiment.
• US-India Trade Talks: Investors closely tracked ongoing trade negotiations, which had the potential to impact various sectors. Source: Money Control

Outlook for FY26

Looking ahead, market sentiment appears cautiously optimistic:

• Valuations and Risk-Reward: Analysts expect a favorable risk-reward balance in sectors like banking, oil & gas, and real estate.
• Earnings Growth: Projections suggest Nifty earnings could grow by 12-15% over the next two fiscal years.
• Foreign Investments: FIIs’ return in late FY25 indicates potential for sustained capital inflows, provided global conditions remain supportive.

Conclusion

FY25 was a year of resilience amidst volatility for the Indian stock market. Despite challenges, specific sectors thrived, while others struggled under economic and policy headwinds. With renewed optimism in specific industries, the outlook for FY26 remains positive, though global factors and corporate earnings will play a decisive role in shaping market trends.

Disclaimer Note: The securities quoted, if any, are for illustration only and are not recommendatory. This article is for education purposes only and shall not be considered as a recommendation or investment advice by Equentis – Research & Ranking. We will not be liable for any losses that may occur. Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. Registration granted by SEBI, membership of BASL & the certification from NISM in no way guarantee the performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.