National Stock Exchange (NSE) shares remain in focus after the exchange reported a 23% year-on-year increase in consolidated net profit to Rs 2,578 crore in Q2 FY27. JP Morgan maintained an Overweight rating with a Rs 2,130 target, Jefferies retained Buy with a revised Rs 2,125 target, while Macquarie continued with Outperform and a Rs 1,975 target. The brokerage outlook remains broadly positive, although trading volumes, regulatory changes and valuations could influence future performance.
NSE Q2 Results FY27: What Did the Stock Exchange Report?
The September quarter marked an important milestone for NSE as it announced its first quarterly results following its September 2026 stock market listing.
NSE reported consolidated net profit of Rs 2,578 crore, compared with Rs 2,098 crore in the corresponding quarter last year. Consolidated revenue from operations increased approximately 11% year-on-year to Rs 4,067 crore.
Total income stood at Rs 4,554 crore, while operating EBITDA reached Rs 3,079 crore, reflecting an EBITDA margin of approximately 76%.
The results reflected strong profitability despite the impact of changes in trading activity following the introduction of the Closing Auction Session (CAS).
JP Morgan on NSE Shares: Overweight, Target Price Rs 2,130
JP Morgan maintained its Overweight rating on NSE with a target price of Rs 2,130.
The brokerage highlighted that NSE’s consolidated revenue from operations came approximately 4% above its estimates. Operating EBITDA exceeded expectations by around 5.5%, supported by effective expense management.
JP Morgan also noted that profitability remained resilient despite lower other income.
Its investment outlook is supported by NSE’s strong market position, growing participation in Indian capital markets and the potential recovery in trading activity.
The brokerage’s positive stance suggests confidence in NSE’s long-term earnings potential, although trading volumes and regulatory developments remain important variables.
Jefferies on NSE Share Price: Buy, Target Raised to Rs 2,125
Jefferies retained its Buy rating on NSE and increased its target price to Rs 2,125 from Rs 2,085.
The brokerage highlighted strong cash market activity and the potential for additional revenue sources beyond equity derivatives.
Its outlook includes expectations of improving trading activity and greater contribution from newer businesses, including commodity options, securities lending and borrowing-related opportunities and other market infrastructure services.
Jefferies also sees the potential for earnings growth as regulatory pressures ease and trading activity improves.
However, it continues to monitor weak equity futures activity and the effect of transaction taxes and technology spending on profitability.
Macquarie on NSE Shares: Outperform, Target Price Rs 1,975
Macquarie maintained its Outperform rating on NSE with a target price of Rs 1,975, indicating a more measured valuation outlook than some other brokerages.
The brokerage described the September quarter as broadly in line with expectations. Cash equity volumes performed better than anticipated, while options activity remained comparatively weaker.
Macquarie highlighted the impact of CAS-related changes, which contributed to sequential declines in average daily traded volumes across cash equities, futures and options.
However, it expects trading activity to recover from Q3 FY27 onwards following revisions to the regulatory framework. The brokerage also believes new products and improving market conditions could provide additional growth avenues.
Why Are Brokerages Positive on NSE?
India’s Growing Capital Markets
NSE’s investment case is closely connected to the expansion of India’s financial markets.
Increasing participation from retail investors, rising mutual fund investments and greater awareness of equities could support long-term trading activity.
NSE also benefits from its established market position and scalable technology infrastructure, which allow it to handle significant trading volumes without proportionate increases in operating costs.
New Revenue Streams Could Reduce Dependence on Derivatives
NSE is exploring and developing businesses beyond traditional equity derivatives trading.
These include:
- Commodity derivatives.
- Market data and index licensing.
- Mutual fund transaction platforms.
- Securities lending and borrowing.
- New financial products and market infrastructure.
Such businesses could help diversify revenues over time, although their contribution will depend on adoption, regulatory approvals and execution.
NSE Share Price: What Are the Key Risks?
Despite positive brokerage ratings, NSE shares are not free from risks.
Regulatory changes: SEBI regulations governing derivatives, trading sessions and market participation can influence exchange revenues.
Trading volume volatility: NSE’s transaction income depends significantly on market activity. Lower trading volumes can affect earnings.
Competition: Rival exchanges and changes in market structure could influence NSE’s market share.
Technology risks: Cybersecurity incidents, system outages and infrastructure failures could affect operations and investor confidence.
Valuation concerns: Strong profitability does not automatically make a stock inexpensive. Investors must compare market price with expected earnings growth and business risks.
The distinction between a positive business outlook and an attractive investment valuation remains important.
Should Investors Buy or Sell NSE Shares After Q2 Results?
The brokerage outlook suggests confidence in NSE’s long-term business potential, but the decision to buy, hold or sell depends on an investor’s entry price, investment horizon and risk tolerance.
Existing shareholders may focus on whether earnings growth, trading volume recovery and diversification justify holding the stock at current valuations.
New investors may consider whether the market price adequately reflects future growth expectations. Brokerage target prices are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes, and can change as business conditions evolve.
Conclusion
NSE’s Q2 FY27 results demonstrate strong profitability, supported by transaction revenues and expense management. JP Morgan, Jefferies and Macquarie remain positive on the exchange, with target prices of Rs 2,130, Rs 2,125 and Rs 1,975, respectively.
The broader investment case rests on India’s expanding capital markets, NSE’s market position and the possibility of recovering trading activity. However, regulatory developments, derivatives volumes, competition and valuation remain important risks.
For investors holding NSE shares, the key consideration is whether future earnings growth can justify the current market valuation rather than relying solely on brokerage recommendations.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. What were NSE’s Q2 FY27 results?
NSE reported consolidated net profit of Rs 2,578 crore in Q2 FY27, up 23% year-on-year from Rs 2,098 crore. Revenue from operations increased approximately 11% to Rs 4,067 crore. The results reflected strong profitability despite sequential pressure on trading volumes following changes in market regulations.
2. What is JP Morgan’s target price for NSE shares?
JP Morgan maintained an Overweight rating on NSE with a target price of Rs 2,130. The brokerage highlighted better-than-expected operating performance, strong expense control and the exchange’s market position. Its outlook reflects expectations of long-term capital market growth and potential improvement in trading activity.
3. What is Jefferies’ recommendation on NSE shares?
Jefferies maintained a Buy rating on NSE and raised its target price to Rs 2,125 from Rs 2,085. The brokerage sees opportunities from strong cash market activity, business diversification and potential recovery in trading volumes. It also considers regulatory developments and operating costs important factors.
4. What is Macquarie’s target price for NSE?
Macquarie retained its Outperform rating on NSE with a target price of Rs 1,975. It considered the September quarter broadly in line with expectations, noting stronger cash equity activity but weaker options volumes. The brokerage expects trading activity to potentially recover following changes to the Closing Auction Session framework.
5. Why did NSE’s trading volumes decline in Q2 FY27?
NSE experienced sequential declines in several trading segments following the introduction of the Closing Auction Session. Changes in end-of-day trading behaviour affected cash equities, futures and options activity. These developments influenced transaction revenues, although year-on-year profitability remained strong.
6. What is the Closing Auction Session in the stock market?
The Closing Auction Session is a mechanism designed to determine closing prices through an auction process. It aims to improve price discovery and reduce distortions around market closing. Changes to the framework can influence trading behaviour, liquidity and transaction volumes for stock exchanges.
7. Can NSE shares benefit from India’s growing retail investor participation?
Greater retail participation could support NSE’s long-term business by increasing trading activity, market data usage and demand for financial products. However, participation growth does not guarantee higher earnings because trading volumes, regulatory changes, competition and transaction charges also influence profitability.
8. What are the major risks for NSE shareholders?
NSE shareholders face risks from regulatory changes, lower trading volumes, competition, technology disruptions and valuation concerns. Since transaction charges contribute significantly to revenues, weaker market activity could affect earnings. Investors should also consider whether the share price adequately reflects future growth expectations.
9. Is NSE a long-term investment opportunity?
NSE’s market position, scalable technology and India’s expanding capital markets provide potential long-term growth drivers. However, investment suitability depends on valuation, earnings growth, regulatory conditions and individual financial objectives. A strong business does not automatically guarantee attractive returns at every purchase price.
10. Should investors buy, hold or sell NSE shares after Q2 results?
There is no universal answer. Investors should evaluate their purchase price, portfolio exposure, investment horizon and expectations for future earnings. Brokerage recommendations and target prices can provide useful perspectives, but they should not replace independent assessment of valuation, business risks and financial goals.
Disclaimer Note: The securities quoted, if any, are for illustration only and are not recommendatory. This article is for education purposes only and shall not be considered as a recommendation or investment advice by Equentis . We will not be liable for any losses that may occur. Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. Registration granted by SEBI, membership of BASL & certification from NISM in no way guarantee the performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.
Parvati Rai is the Vice President of the Research team at Equentis. She has over 15 years of equity-research and strategy-consulting experience. A specialist in deep-dive valuations, financial modelling, and forecasting, she has built research desks from the ground up, by steering buy-side, sell-side, and independent coverage across sectors. When she isn’t fine-tuning models, Parvati unwinds on nature treks and mentors aspiring analysts.
