Global Stock Market Highlights: Week 48 Nov 25 –Dec 1, 2024

World Stock Market Index US Markets

The US market led the gains on the strength of positive economic indicators, but the global market had a mixed week overall. All three major US indexes—Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq—closed the week higher. 

In the US, personal income increased by 0.6% in October—a little more than anticipated—and consumer sentiment remained solid. Additionally, pending home sales exceeded forecasts of a decrease, increasing by 2% in October. However, the manufacturing sector appeared to remain in a slump during October. 

Geopolitical factors were also major drivers of sentiment during the week, as the tariff war is expected to get worse during President Trump’s tenure. 

World Stock Market Index European Markets

On the other hand, the accelerated pace of inflation for the second consecutive month in the Eurozone area is impacting retail sales. In Germany, retail sales fell 1.5% sequentially in October, much exceeding the predicted 0.5% drop. Also, in the UK, retail sales volumes fell sharper than estimated in November, and the retail sector’s confidence index was the lowest in two years.

This can result in the European Central Bank delaying the lowering of borrowing costs next month to support growth. 

World Stock Market Index Asian Markets

The lack of any specific triggers caused major Asian indexes to trade on a volatile note. In China, increasing hopes of more stimulus packages to spur growth are helping to offset the tariff concerns. Also, the rising dollar is a major concern, as economies in Asia depend heavily on dollars for their crude purchases, affecting the balance of payment. 

In India, slower-than-expected GDP growth in the second quarter of FY25 dampened the mood. The GDP growth of 5.4% during the quarter was the slowest in the last seven quarters and below the RBI estimate of 7%. 

Top Highlights of the Global Stock Market This Week

• The US stock market concluded November on a strong note, posting its greatest monthly gains this year. Dow Jones and S&P 500 indexes gained 6.57% and 3.76%, respectively.
  
• The US Black Friday sales on November 29th is showing strong online sales despite the inflation concerns. Data from the National Retail Federation shows, it is expecting a record 183.4 million people to make online purchases, slightly up from 182 million in 2023. Adobe Analytics said US consumers had spent $7.9 billion online as of Friday, and expected the final tally to exceed $11 billion at the end of the weekend. 

• Inflation in the Eurozone area rose to 2.3% in November, above the European Central Bank’s target of 2%. 

• Despite the challenges in the German economy due to the slowing down of the manufacturing sector, the unemployment rate was 5.9% in November. The number of unemployed people during the month rose by 7,000 to reach 2.86 million, a smaller-than-expected increase of 20,000. 

• Canada’s GDP growth in the July-September quarter slowed to 1%, further paving the way for rate cuts. Additionally, Trump’s tariff plan on Canada can derail the country’s future growth plan.

• The Bank of England has issued significant warnings about rising government debt, which could threaten financial stability and increase global borrowing costs. The Office for Budget Responsibility anticipated that the UK national debt would increase from £2.7 trillion at the end of the previous fiscal year to £3.4 trillion by the end of the decade.
  
• The Russian economy is showing signs of weakness and instability. Its currency, the Ruble, plunged to its lowest level since the early days of the Ukraine invasion in March 2022.
  
• China’s manufacturing PMI crossed the 50 mark in November for the first time since April. It is the second consecutive month of expansion, and a series of recent stimulus measures are gradually showing their effect.
  
  However, Morgan Stanley analysts predict a volatile 2025 for China’s stock market, citing lower earnings, geopolitical uncertainties, and probable tariffs.
  
• India’s GDP growth slowed to 5.4% in the July-September quarter, below the expected line, further putting pressure on the RBI growth forecast of 7.2% in FY25. In the April-June quarter, the GDP growth was 6.2%. 

Key Events to Watch in Global Markets in the Upcoming Week

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release its meeting minutes, possibly providing insights into the Federal Reserve’s plan for future interest rate decisions and the December rate cut. 

• Another important dataset to monitor next week is the US non-farm payroll data, which will be crucial to understanding the state of the US economy and labor market. 

• The European Central Bank’s policy decisions and statements will be closely watched for any changes in monetary policy amidst rising inflation levels above the target and increasing risk of recession in the region.

• Investors will also focus on China’s export and import data, which can give clues about global demand and domestic consumption. 

• The OPEC + meeting on crude production and supply cuts is scheduled for December 5th. The group will discuss whether to continue increasing production by 180,000 barrels a day in January amidst the softening crude price. Brent Crude is trading around the $70 level and showing signs of weakness.

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